Inflation slide eases pressure on BoE
By Robert Barr |
April 13, 2011, Wednesday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
CONSUMER price inflation in Britain unexpectedly fell in March, official figures showed yesterday, easing the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates next month.
The Office for National Statistics said consumer prices rose by 4 percent in the year to March, down from February's rate of 4.4 percent. The drop was largely due to lower costs for food, nonalcoholic beverages, recreation and air travel.
The decline was the first in seven months and was unexpected. Most analysts thought inflation would stay around February's level.
The impact was felt immediately in the foreign exchange markets, where traders moved to cut their expectations of an interest rate increase in May.
"Today's surprise news may take some of the pressure off of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee to raise rates next month," said Scott Corfe, economist at the Center for Economics and Business Research.
"Still, with consumer price inflation at double the Bank's central target, there are plenty of reasons for inflation hawks to remain concerned about the Bank losing credibility."
Inflation remains a headache for rate-setters at the BoE as it's been above the 2 percent target for 16 straight months, largely because of rising energy costs and higher sales taxes.
The inflation figures came after earlier data from the British Retail Consortium showed the sharpest drop in retail sales in at least 16 years. It revealed that total sales were 1.9 percent in March than the year before, the biggest decline since the survey began in 1995.
"This year's later Easter is a factor but this fall goes way beyond anything that can be explained by that alone," said Stephen Robertson, the Consortium's director general. "Uncomfortably high inflation and low wage growth have produced the first year-on-year fall in disposable incomes for 30 years."
The BRC's figures echo recent findings that the British economy is not recovering as strongly as some of its peers, such as Germany, as households rein in spending.
The Office for National Statistics said consumer prices rose by 4 percent in the year to March, down from February's rate of 4.4 percent. The drop was largely due to lower costs for food, nonalcoholic beverages, recreation and air travel.
The decline was the first in seven months and was unexpected. Most analysts thought inflation would stay around February's level.
The impact was felt immediately in the foreign exchange markets, where traders moved to cut their expectations of an interest rate increase in May.
"Today's surprise news may take some of the pressure off of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee to raise rates next month," said Scott Corfe, economist at the Center for Economics and Business Research.
"Still, with consumer price inflation at double the Bank's central target, there are plenty of reasons for inflation hawks to remain concerned about the Bank losing credibility."
Inflation remains a headache for rate-setters at the BoE as it's been above the 2 percent target for 16 straight months, largely because of rising energy costs and higher sales taxes.
The inflation figures came after earlier data from the British Retail Consortium showed the sharpest drop in retail sales in at least 16 years. It revealed that total sales were 1.9 percent in March than the year before, the biggest decline since the survey began in 1995.
"This year's later Easter is a factor but this fall goes way beyond anything that can be explained by that alone," said Stephen Robertson, the Consortium's director general. "Uncomfortably high inflation and low wage growth have produced the first year-on-year fall in disposable incomes for 30 years."
The BRC's figures echo recent findings that the British economy is not recovering as strongly as some of its peers, such as Germany, as households rein in spending.
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