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January inflation expected to slow
By Wang Yanlin |
February 4, 2013, Monday
|
Online Edition
Online Edition
CHINA'S inflation may return to around 1.8 percent in January from December's seven-month high of 2.5 percent due to normalized food supply and a higher comparative base, analysts predicted before the release of the data scheduled on Friday.
Meanwhile, exports and imports likely had a strong month in January as the working days were more than a year earlier, analysts said.
"No big policy changes are expected this month," said Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank. "Economic data in the past few months have all pointed to a mild recovery that makes aggressive moves unnecessary."
Lu predicted the Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, expanded 1.8 percent on an annual basis last month as food prices stabilized.
In December, vegetable prices surged 14.8 percent after the coldest weather in nearly 30 years reduced supply.
The Producer Price Index, the factory-gate measurement of inflation, is likely to fall 1.7 percent year on year in January, narrowing from December's drop of 1.9 percent but still pointing at controllable inflation in the future, Lu said.
Tang Jianwei, an economist at Bank of Communications, said a higher comparative base also contributed to the moderating inflation.
The CPI climbed 4.5 percent in January of 2012, the highest level last year.
As for exports and imports, both economists said the data would continue to "look good."
However, they said the statistics will be affected by seasonal factors as last year the Spring Festival holiday was in January.
Lu said exports may have increased 18.5 percent last month, stronger than December's 14.5 percent growth. Imports may have surged 30 percent, much better than the 6 percent gain from a month ago.
Meanwhile, exports and imports likely had a strong month in January as the working days were more than a year earlier, analysts said.
"No big policy changes are expected this month," said Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank. "Economic data in the past few months have all pointed to a mild recovery that makes aggressive moves unnecessary."
Lu predicted the Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, expanded 1.8 percent on an annual basis last month as food prices stabilized.
In December, vegetable prices surged 14.8 percent after the coldest weather in nearly 30 years reduced supply.
The Producer Price Index, the factory-gate measurement of inflation, is likely to fall 1.7 percent year on year in January, narrowing from December's drop of 1.9 percent but still pointing at controllable inflation in the future, Lu said.
Tang Jianwei, an economist at Bank of Communications, said a higher comparative base also contributed to the moderating inflation.
The CPI climbed 4.5 percent in January of 2012, the highest level last year.
As for exports and imports, both economists said the data would continue to "look good."
However, they said the statistics will be affected by seasonal factors as last year the Spring Festival holiday was in January.
Lu said exports may have increased 18.5 percent last month, stronger than December's 14.5 percent growth. Imports may have surged 30 percent, much better than the 6 percent gain from a month ago.
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