June CPI growth likely about 2.4%
Print Edition
CHINA’S consumer price inflation was probably about 2.4 percent last month, little changed from May due to only small adjustments in food costs, analysts said ahead of the release of official figures next week.
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, likely rose by between 2.2 and 2.6 percent in June, according to several analysts.
“Considering the stable food prices, there should be no big movement in June’s CPI,” said Tang Jianwei, an economist at the Bank of Communications. He said he expects the figure to be 2.4 percent.
“That will leave room for the government to roll out measures to bolster growth,” he said.
In May, the CPI rose by a four-month high of 2.5 percent year on year, up from 1.8 percent in April, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
A low comparative base and high food costs — which gained 4.1 percent in May — were the main reasons for the spike.
UBS economist Wang Tao agreed that stable food prices can help stabilize the CPI.
“It enables credit conditions to remain accommodating. As such, we expect second-quarter GDP growth to recover to 7.5 percent,” she said.
With more easing measures under way and exports recovering, the growth momentum should continue in the third quarter, she said.
The government has accelerated the release of its so-called “mini-stimulus” package after economic growth moderated to an 18-month low of 7.4 percent in the first quarter.
On Monday, the CBRC said it will relax lending curbs for commercial banks by adjusting the calculation method for loan-to-deposit ratios.
Meanwhile, the official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 51 in June — its highest level of the year — from 50.8 in May.
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