Key data to signal optimism on GDP
By Wang Yanlin |
December 10, 2009, Thursday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
CHINA'S key economic data for November, due to be released tomorrow, will likely show further evidence of a steady growth in industrial output and possibly reverse an export decline, analysts said.
Wang Qing, an economist at Morgan Stanley, said the low base effect may bring about sharp rebounds in annual comparisons of the November data.
"Although the flat November Purchasing Managers Index reading holds us back from forecasting even more aggressive improvements in macro statistics for last month, we believe the low base effect from last year's plunge should bring about respectable rebounds, consolidating evidence for strong growth momentum into the last quarter of this year," Wang said.
Morgan Stanley predicted a boost in China's industrial production in November to 18.5 percent year on year, compared with the expansion of 16.1 percent in October.
The investment bank also forecast that China's exports and imports may return to positive year-on-year growth in November, with exports rising 4 percent from a drop of 13.8 percent in October.
Lu Zhengwei, an analyst at Industrial Bank Co, forecast growth in industrial production, retail sales and urban fixed-asset investment in November, while exports may decline at a slower pace and start to rise next year.
China's economy has recovered in recent months. Its gross domestic product rose 8.9 percent from a year earlier in the third quarter, while it grew 7.9 percent in the second quarter and 6.1 percent in the first three months.
The Purchasing Managers Index, a measure of manufacturing activities, stayed at 55.2 in November, the same as in October and has settled above 50, usually taken as growth, for nine straight months.
"China's economic performance momentum will continue," said Li Maoyu, a Changjiang Securities analyst.
Wang Qing, an economist at Morgan Stanley, said the low base effect may bring about sharp rebounds in annual comparisons of the November data.
"Although the flat November Purchasing Managers Index reading holds us back from forecasting even more aggressive improvements in macro statistics for last month, we believe the low base effect from last year's plunge should bring about respectable rebounds, consolidating evidence for strong growth momentum into the last quarter of this year," Wang said.
Morgan Stanley predicted a boost in China's industrial production in November to 18.5 percent year on year, compared with the expansion of 16.1 percent in October.
The investment bank also forecast that China's exports and imports may return to positive year-on-year growth in November, with exports rising 4 percent from a drop of 13.8 percent in October.
Lu Zhengwei, an analyst at Industrial Bank Co, forecast growth in industrial production, retail sales and urban fixed-asset investment in November, while exports may decline at a slower pace and start to rise next year.
China's economy has recovered in recent months. Its gross domestic product rose 8.9 percent from a year earlier in the third quarter, while it grew 7.9 percent in the second quarter and 6.1 percent in the first three months.
The Purchasing Managers Index, a measure of manufacturing activities, stayed at 55.2 in November, the same as in October and has settled above 50, usually taken as growth, for nine straight months.
"China's economic performance momentum will continue," said Li Maoyu, a Changjiang Securities analyst.
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