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Meetings to talk reforms, 7.5% GDP growth target
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China’s reforms and a moderate economic growth target for this year are set to be the highlights of the upcoming annual sessions of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference.
China is likely to keep the economic growth target at 7.5 percent for this year, and reforms in state-owned enterprises, local government debt management, financial sector regulations, environment protection, free trade zones, and elderly care services will be on the agenda, analysts said ahead of the opening of the sessions, which will start on Monday.
Zhu Haibin, chief economist for China at JPMorgan, said the two main issues to watch out this year were the major economic targets for 2014 and reform measures.
“The new leaders are more willing to tolerate slower growth for better quality, but the GDP remains the most important economic indicator,” Zhu said. He expected China will maintain the 7.5 percent economic growth target for 2014 while also keeping other goals the same as those of last year.
Ding Shuang and Shen Minggao, economists at Citi Group, said in a note that China will balance growth and reforms.
“Reform may take precedence as long as the bottom lines are not threatened,” they said.
The bottom lines refer to the possibilities such as quarterly growth falling below 7 percent or an imminent systemic financial risk, they said.
“Investment deregulation, financial liberalization and realignment of fiscal relations may top the 2014 reform agenda, and the government may also kick-start reform of SOEs and urbanization,” they said.
They also saw the GDP growth target kept at 7.5 percent.
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