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November PMI signals contraction

CHINA'S manufacturing activities shrank for the first time in almost three years last month under dismal external demand, rising production costs and tight domestic liquidity for small firms.

The official Purchasing Managers' Index, a comprehensive gauge of manufacturing activities across the country, slipped from October's 50.4 to 49 in November, the lowest since March, 2009.

A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in industrial activities.

The drop was led by declines in new orders and new export orders, both of which scaled back more than 2 points and fell below 50, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the index compiler, said today in a note.

Also, most producers of raw materials and downstream products reported contracting activities, while manufacturers of consumer goods said their operational conditions still improved.

"It indicated the influence of rising production costs, which affected producers of lower stream producers more. Also, external demand worsened more than expected," the federation said.

Meanwhile, the HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, which is slanted towards private and export-oriented firms, dropped to a 32-month low of 47.7 in November, down from 51 in October. The decline was the largest in three years.

"The reading points to a sharp deterioration in business conditions across the Chinese manufacturing sector," said Qu Hongbin, chief economist for China at HSBC. "Combined with a faster-than-expected easing in inflation, this implies that growth is set to overtake inflation as China's top policy concern."

Last night, the central bank announced its first cut in banks' required reserve ratio in three years, unlocking about 370 billion yuan (US$58 billion) of liquidity in the banking system. It was treated as a signal of broader policy fine-tuning to sustain China's economic growth, which slowed down to 9.1 percent in the third quarter.



 

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