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November data to show economic stability, economists say
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China’s economic data for November will continue to reflect stable growth momentum and inflation may decelerate for the first time in three months, analysts said. Key data will be released next week.
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, may have expanded 3.1 percent from a year earlier in November, compared with October’s eight-month high of 3.2 percent, some analysts predicted.
“Figures may show very small fluctuations, indicating economic stability,” said Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank. “The inflationary pressure may ease a bit, helping to soothe market liquidity.”
However, the Producer Price Index, the factory-gate inflation measurement, may have fallen 1.4 percent last month, narrowing from the drop of 1.5 percent in October.
Tang Jianwei, an economist at Bank of Communications, said the country may have to brave higher inflation figures next year. The above 3-percent CPI rates will continue into the future.
“Based on past experience, the upward cycle of inflation will last for about two years, with the peak arriving in the second year,” Tang said. “We expect there will be heavier inflationary pressure next year, and the peak will be stronger than this year’s 3.2 percent record.”
Industrial Bank’s Lu also said it is unlikely for China to see a reversal in the upward trend of inflation in the short term.
The highlight of last month’s data may go to retail sales, which can be boosted by the grand Single Day’s online sales. Sales may rise 13.5 percent, compared with October’s pace of 13.3 percent.
Exports and imports may stabilize after strong performance in the past three months, while fixed-asset investment may retain the growth momentum at around 20.1 percent.
Data already released showed that strength of both China’s manufacturing activity and service activity kept resilient in November, with the official Purchasing Managers’ Index at a 19-month high of 51.4 and the non-manufacturing PMI at 56.
China’s gross domestic product expanded 7.7 percent in the first three quarters, with signs of a recovery in recent months as demand picked up at both home and abroad.
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