November growth data to stay weak
Print Edition
CHINA’S November economic data is likely to remain weak, partly due to the temporary production stoppage enforced during the APEC summit in Beijing last month, analysts said yesterday ahead of the data’s release next week.
But some analysts also pointed out that even without the temporary stoppage, the figures will reflect an economic slowdown.
“November economic activity was likely weakened by the APEC closures,” said Wang Tao, an economist at UBS. “But as reflected by the Purchasing Managers’ Index, the underlying real trend likely remains feeble.”
The official PMI, a gauge of operating conditions in the manufacturing sector, grew at the slowest pace in seven months in November, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.
Lian Ping, chief economist at the Bank of Communications, said the November data will see limited improvement as the results of the interest rate cuts have yet to bear fruit.
To support growth, the People’s Bank of China late last month lowered the benchmark interest rates for the first time in more than two years, following easier policies that loosened restrictions imposed on real estate transactions.
“China’s economic growth has seen a notable slowdown in the third quarter,” Lian said. “But the pace of the slowdown has stabilized in the last two months.”
Lian predicted China’s exports would expand 8 percent in November, down from 11.6 percent a month earlier, and fixed-asset investment would slow by 0.1 percentage point to 15.8 percent in the first 11 months. But the growth of industrial production, retail sales and imports are likely to be marginal, Lian said.
But Wang did not share Lian’s optimism.
“November industrial production growth will likely stumble again due to factory closures,” Wang said. “Property sales growth may have turned positive, but fixed-asset investment growth likely remained tepid.”
China’s gross domestic product grew 7.3 percent from a year earlier in the third quarter, the slowest pace in more than five years led by corrections in the property sector.
Next week, China will host the annual Central Economic Work Conference, which is expected to set the policy tone for 2015.
Some analysts have predicted that authorities will lower the growth target to 7 percent for next year from this year’s 7.5 percent.
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