October performance boosts hopes of economic recovery
By Wang Yanlin |
November 11, 2012, Sunday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
CHINA'S trade performance in October turned out to be better than expected, consolidating belief that economic recovery is taking shape in the world's second-largest economy.
But officials and analysts warned of uncertainties ahead as demand is still weak worldwide in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.
Exports expanded 11.6 percent from a year earlier to US$175.6 billion last month, and up from the increase of 9.9 percent in September, the General Administration of Customs said yesterday.
Imports gained 2.4 percent to US$143.6 billion, keeping the same pace as one month earlier.
As a result, the October trade surplus widened to US$32 billion from US$27.6 billion in September, the Customs data showed.
Despite the improved trade performance, Chinese Minister of Commerce Chen Deming yesterday cautioned that there were still tough times ahead.
"The trade situation will be relatively grim over the next few months and there will be many difficulties next year," Chen told reporters on the sidelines of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.
On Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics released a batch of indicators - including industrial production, fixed-asset investment and retail sales - which all showed accelerating growth, while inflation eased to the lowest level in nearly three years.
These were regarded as signs of a stabilizing growth in China.
Zhou Hao, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd, said the better-than-expected exports were due to a combination of factors.
"Better Christmas orders from the United States, a low base effect and the broadening of government's export tax rebate policies all help," Zhou said.
Traders were less optimistic. At the China Import and Export Fair, - or Canton Fair - which ended last week, visitor numbers were down more than 10 percent from the event in May and the value of deals signed fell 9.3 percent.
"Traders are not very confident about the future," said Li Maoyu, an analyst at Changjiang Securities Co. "Also, foreign buyers are tending to place short-term orders, given uncertainties, which also dampens the confidence of Chinese traders."
The yuan exchange rate is one of these "many uncertainties." A larger trade surplus in October may lead to a stronger yuan, adding costs to exporters, Li said.
In the first 10 months, the country's foreign trade volume expanded 6.3 percent from the same period of last year to US$3.16 trillion, with a trade surplus of US$180.2 billion.
In September, the State Council, China's Cabinet, announced a slew of policies, including more timely payment of export tax rebates, more credit insurance, less fees and better Customs services to bolster trade.
Analysts believe these measures may help sustain trade growth in the near term.
In the first 10 months of this year, the European Union remained China's biggest trading partner, with a trade volume of US$452.8 billion.
During the same period, China's bilateral trade with the US jumped 9.1 percent to US$396 billion, while trade with Japan fell 2.1 percent to US$275.4 billion.
Shanghai's trade rose 0.5 percent on an annual basis to US$362.9 billion in the first 10 months on 2012, placing the city third in value after the southern Guangdong Province and neighboring Jiangsu Province.
But officials and analysts warned of uncertainties ahead as demand is still weak worldwide in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.
Exports expanded 11.6 percent from a year earlier to US$175.6 billion last month, and up from the increase of 9.9 percent in September, the General Administration of Customs said yesterday.
Imports gained 2.4 percent to US$143.6 billion, keeping the same pace as one month earlier.
As a result, the October trade surplus widened to US$32 billion from US$27.6 billion in September, the Customs data showed.
Despite the improved trade performance, Chinese Minister of Commerce Chen Deming yesterday cautioned that there were still tough times ahead.
"The trade situation will be relatively grim over the next few months and there will be many difficulties next year," Chen told reporters on the sidelines of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.
On Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics released a batch of indicators - including industrial production, fixed-asset investment and retail sales - which all showed accelerating growth, while inflation eased to the lowest level in nearly three years.
These were regarded as signs of a stabilizing growth in China.
Zhou Hao, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd, said the better-than-expected exports were due to a combination of factors.
"Better Christmas orders from the United States, a low base effect and the broadening of government's export tax rebate policies all help," Zhou said.
Traders were less optimistic. At the China Import and Export Fair, - or Canton Fair - which ended last week, visitor numbers were down more than 10 percent from the event in May and the value of deals signed fell 9.3 percent.
"Traders are not very confident about the future," said Li Maoyu, an analyst at Changjiang Securities Co. "Also, foreign buyers are tending to place short-term orders, given uncertainties, which also dampens the confidence of Chinese traders."
The yuan exchange rate is one of these "many uncertainties." A larger trade surplus in October may lead to a stronger yuan, adding costs to exporters, Li said.
In the first 10 months, the country's foreign trade volume expanded 6.3 percent from the same period of last year to US$3.16 trillion, with a trade surplus of US$180.2 billion.
In September, the State Council, China's Cabinet, announced a slew of policies, including more timely payment of export tax rebates, more credit insurance, less fees and better Customs services to bolster trade.
Analysts believe these measures may help sustain trade growth in the near term.
In the first 10 months of this year, the European Union remained China's biggest trading partner, with a trade volume of US$452.8 billion.
During the same period, China's bilateral trade with the US jumped 9.1 percent to US$396 billion, while trade with Japan fell 2.1 percent to US$275.4 billion.
Shanghai's trade rose 0.5 percent on an annual basis to US$362.9 billion in the first 10 months on 2012, placing the city third in value after the southern Guangdong Province and neighboring Jiangsu Province.
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