Region's growth may turn 3b Asians affluent
Source: Agencies |
May 5, 2011, Thursday
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SOME 3 billion Asians could rise to affluent status by 2050 if Asia sustains its present growth momentum and avoids being trapped at middle income levels, according to an Asian Development Bank report.
The report released yesterday said as the global economy's center of gravity shifts toward Asia, the region could account for about half of world economic output in 2050, up from the current 27 percent, as well as half of trade and investment.
Under an optimistic "Asian Century" scenario, the region's gross domestic product would soar to US$148 trillion by mid-century. GDP per person on a purchasing power parity basis would climb to US$38,600 compared with the projected 2050 global average of US$36,600.
The draft "Asia 2050" report said the less optimistic "Middle Income Trap" scenario assumes that Asia's fast-growing economies of China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam will have slower growth rates and stagnant income levels over the next five to 10 years. It also assumes that none of Asia's slow-growing economies would have faster growth rates.
If these events occur, the report said, Asia would account for only 32 percent or US$61 trillion of global GDP in 2050. GDP per capita would also rise to only US$20,300, or just over half of what it would be under the more optimistic scenario.
"The difference in outcomes under the two scenarios and thus the opportunity cost of not realizing the Asian Century scenario is huge, especially in human terms," said Haruhiko Kuroda, the Manila-based lender's president.
The report released yesterday said as the global economy's center of gravity shifts toward Asia, the region could account for about half of world economic output in 2050, up from the current 27 percent, as well as half of trade and investment.
Under an optimistic "Asian Century" scenario, the region's gross domestic product would soar to US$148 trillion by mid-century. GDP per person on a purchasing power parity basis would climb to US$38,600 compared with the projected 2050 global average of US$36,600.
The draft "Asia 2050" report said the less optimistic "Middle Income Trap" scenario assumes that Asia's fast-growing economies of China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam will have slower growth rates and stagnant income levels over the next five to 10 years. It also assumes that none of Asia's slow-growing economies would have faster growth rates.
If these events occur, the report said, Asia would account for only 32 percent or US$61 trillion of global GDP in 2050. GDP per capita would also rise to only US$20,300, or just over half of what it would be under the more optimistic scenario.
"The difference in outcomes under the two scenarios and thus the opportunity cost of not realizing the Asian Century scenario is huge, especially in human terms," said Haruhiko Kuroda, the Manila-based lender's president.
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