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February 27, 2013

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Russia's GDP to grow below forecast

RUSSIA'S economy will grow less than previously forecast this year as the deteriorating global outlook weighs on demand and inflation hurts domestic consumers.

Gross domestic product will expand 3.3 percent in 2013, less than the 3.6 percent expansion forecast in the fall, the World Bank said in a report yesterday. Output will begin to recover in 2014, with GDP advancing 3.6 percent, the lender said.

Russia, the world's largest energy exporter, has limited prospects to bolster growth through traditional channels as oil prices hold near record highs, according to the report. Europe is facing a deepening recession, while consumer-price growth in Russia is restricting the household spending that accounts for about half the economy.

"The weak external environment, high inflation, flat oil prices and sluggish domestic demand are set to postpone a pickup in growth toward the second half of 2013," the Washington-based World Bank said. "Nevertheless, modest growth and lower inflation are projected to reduce poverty further."

The World Bank's forecast is below the Economy Ministry's 3.6 percent projection. The European Commission last week said it predicted Russia will grow 3.7 percent this year and 3.9 percent in 2014.

Economists see Russian GDP expanding 3.3 percent this year before accelerating to 3.8 percent in 2014, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

Russia's economy shrank 0.3 percent in January from a month earlier when seasonal factors were taken into account, Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach told reporters in Moscow on Monday. That was the first monthly decline since March 2012, he said.





 

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