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Russia’s growth in Q3 below estimate
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Russia’s third-quarter growth rate came well below government expectations yesterday in a fresh blow to President Vladimir Putin’s hopes of avoiding a new era of economic stagnation.
The state statistics committee said the economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.2 percent between July and September — the slowest among the big emerging markets and less than half the pace in the United States.
The committee’s report confirmed an earlier estimate by the finance ministry and was just a fraction of the 3 percent or better figure envisioned by the government over the summer.
The annual rate was the same as in the second quarter and slower than the 1.6 percent rise witnessed in the first three months of this year.
Both the government and economists had expected Russia’s output to pick up in the second half of the year and reach an annual rate of at least 1.8 percent.
Putin had initially promised economic growth of 5 percent this year — a figure that was meant to improve on the 3.4 percent to 4 percent annual performances achieved between 2010 and 2012.
Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have attributed Russia’s latest disappointment to a poor harvest that was damaged by one of the wettest autumns in years.
The committee report came out days after Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev warned that Russia faced 17 more years of negligible growth and global underperformance because of the Kremlin’s failure to pursue reforms when oil prices were high.
Ulyukayev cautioned: “The average rise in gross domestic product will range between 2.5 and 3 percent until 2025.”
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