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Steel leads surge in business activity
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China’s business activity surged to a 17-month high in August, providing fresh evidence that the protracted economic slowdown in China may be bottoming out.
Industrial production gained 10.4 percent from a year earlier, picking up from the pace of 9.7 percent in July and June’s 8.9 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday.
It was led by the steel sector, an indication that railway and property investment has warmed up.
Fixed-asset investment grew 20.3 percent to 26.2 trillion yuan (US$4.2 trillion) in the first eight months, up 0.2 percentage points from that in the first seven months and slightly above market expectations, the bureau’s data showed.
Retail sales, an indication of consumer demand, edged up 13.4 percent to 1.88 trillion yuan in August, faster than the increase of 13.2 percent a month earlier.
“China’s August real activity data came in stronger than expected,” said Zhou Hao, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.
“They help to sustain the market rally due to improving market sentiment towards China’s economy,” Zhou added.
China’s economy expanded 7.5 percent from a year earlier in the second quarter of this year, extending the moderation for more than two years. But the economy has exhibited signs of stabilization in the past two months.
Analysts said the strengthened performance was in part due to supportive measures, including tax reduction for small companies, more investment in railway and other infrastructure construction as well as less red tape for exporters.
“As market sentiment continues to improve, we expect bond yield curves to steepen in the foreseeable future,” ANZ’s Zhou said, predicting third-quarter growth at above 7.5 percent.
JPMorgan has also revised its projection of third-quarter growth to 7.6 percent year on year, bringing the whole year expectation to 7.6 percent, up from 7.4 percent previously.
Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, said the recent improvement is largely because of better exports amid improving global demand, but solid domestic demand growth will serve as an important cushion.
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