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Survey: US recovery to remain steady
By Candice Choi |
November 23, 2010, Tuesday
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Print Edition
Print Edition
THE pace of the United States economic recovery will remain steady but slow in the face of persistently high unemployment and heavy debt burdens, according to a new survey.
The National Association for Business Economics survey found economists now expect growth of 2.7 percent this year, up slightly from the previous forecast of 2.6 percent.
For next year, the group still expects an economic expansion of 2.6 percent.
The likelihood of either stagflation or relapse into recession was seen as low. But high unemployment, debt and severe loss of wealth are expected to hamper a more robust rebound, according to the survey.
"Confidence in the expansion's durability is intact, but panelists remain concerned about high levels of federal debt, a continuing high level of unemployment, increased business regulation, and rising commodity prices," said Richard Wobbekind, president of NABE and an associate dean of the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado.
The 51 members surveyed by the group said they also expect consumer spending to remain modest, with this year's holiday retail sales rising just 2.5 percent from last year.
Meanwhile, the number of jobs employers add to their payrolls is forecast to average less than 150,000 a month before picking up in the latter half of next year. The unemployment rate is expected to remain elevated at 9.5 percent or higher through early next year. It's expected to ease only slightly to 9.2 percent by the end of 2011. That would mark the weakest post-recession job recovery on record, the group said.
The survey was taken between October 21 and November 4.
The National Association for Business Economics survey found economists now expect growth of 2.7 percent this year, up slightly from the previous forecast of 2.6 percent.
For next year, the group still expects an economic expansion of 2.6 percent.
The likelihood of either stagflation or relapse into recession was seen as low. But high unemployment, debt and severe loss of wealth are expected to hamper a more robust rebound, according to the survey.
"Confidence in the expansion's durability is intact, but panelists remain concerned about high levels of federal debt, a continuing high level of unemployment, increased business regulation, and rising commodity prices," said Richard Wobbekind, president of NABE and an associate dean of the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado.
The 51 members surveyed by the group said they also expect consumer spending to remain modest, with this year's holiday retail sales rising just 2.5 percent from last year.
Meanwhile, the number of jobs employers add to their payrolls is forecast to average less than 150,000 a month before picking up in the latter half of next year. The unemployment rate is expected to remain elevated at 9.5 percent or higher through early next year. It's expected to ease only slightly to 9.2 percent by the end of 2011. That would mark the weakest post-recession job recovery on record, the group said.
The survey was taken between October 21 and November 4.
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