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UBS sees no growth in exports next year
By Wang Yanlin |
December 14, 2011, Wednesday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
CHINA may not see any growth in exports next year and this will have a sizable negative impact on the economy, UBS economist Wang Tao said yesterday.
"China's export growth has slowed, and its trade surplus has declined in recent months," Wang said. "The same trend is expected to continue in 2012."
She forecast no expansion in China's exports in 2012, which will affect corporate investment and consumer spending.
Wang said: "We expect the government to ease fiscal and monetary policies, with extra fiscal deficit and new bank credit amounting to about 2-3 percent of gross domestic product."
The market may hope the dismal outlook may spur further easing in monetary and fiscal policies.
However, the ongoing Central Economic Work Conference may still put emphasis on "stability" in policies. Policymakers at the meeting discuss key economic targets to chart the course for the country's monetary and fiscal policies next year.
China's exports grew 13.8 percent from a year earlier in November - the slowest pace in nine months amid a worsening global economic climate. The trade surplus narrowed to US$138.4 billion in the first 11 months, down 18.2 percent from a year earlier. As a share of GDP, it may fall to 3 percent this year from 9 percent in 2007.
Wang also said the pressure for a stronger yuan may weaken next year because of a shrinking trade surplus that may only account for 2 percent of China's GDP in 2012.
"The fundamental pressures for the yuan to appreciate have weakened," Wang said.
"China's export growth has slowed, and its trade surplus has declined in recent months," Wang said. "The same trend is expected to continue in 2012."
She forecast no expansion in China's exports in 2012, which will affect corporate investment and consumer spending.
Wang said: "We expect the government to ease fiscal and monetary policies, with extra fiscal deficit and new bank credit amounting to about 2-3 percent of gross domestic product."
The market may hope the dismal outlook may spur further easing in monetary and fiscal policies.
However, the ongoing Central Economic Work Conference may still put emphasis on "stability" in policies. Policymakers at the meeting discuss key economic targets to chart the course for the country's monetary and fiscal policies next year.
China's exports grew 13.8 percent from a year earlier in November - the slowest pace in nine months amid a worsening global economic climate. The trade surplus narrowed to US$138.4 billion in the first 11 months, down 18.2 percent from a year earlier. As a share of GDP, it may fall to 3 percent this year from 9 percent in 2007.
Wang also said the pressure for a stronger yuan may weaken next year because of a shrinking trade surplus that may only account for 2 percent of China's GDP in 2012.
"The fundamental pressures for the yuan to appreciate have weakened," Wang said.
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