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UK jobless drops to lowest since late 2012
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Britain’s unemployment rate fell unexpectedly in July to its lowest since late last year, adding to bets in financial markets that the Bank of England might raise interest rates earlier than it has suggested.
The Office for National Statistics said yesterday that the rate dipped to 7.7 percent in the three months ending in July from 7.8 percent previously, as the number of people without a job on the ILO measure dropped by 24,000 to 2.487 million.
That was the lowest jobless rate since September-November 2012.
In another sign of surprising strength in the labor market, the number of people claiming jobless benefit — a narrower measure of unemployment — fell by 32,600 in August. Economists taking part in a Reuters poll had expected a drop of 22,000 from July.
July’s fall was also revised to show a drop of 36,300 — the steepest drop since June 1997.
The jobs data have taken on a new significance since the BOE, keen to encourage spending and investment, pledged last month to keep key borrowing costs low as long as the ILO jobless rate remained above 7 percent.
The central bank predicts this key rate will fall sharply next year before easing more gently to stand just above 7 percent in the third quarter of 2016.
However, investors reckon that joblessness will fall more quickly and are pricing in the first rise in interest rates in December 2014.
Such bets have led to rises in a range of market interest rates, including those that usually feed through to mortgages and other loans.
Last month, BOE Governor Mark Carney estimated that about 750,000 jobs would need to be created over the next three years for unemployment to fall to 7 percent.
Projecting the path of Britain’s jobless rate has been complicated in recent years by older workers rejoining or staying in the labor force, job cuts in the public sector and uncertainty about immigration levels.
The ONS said public-sector employment fell in the second quarter by 34,000 to 5.67 million.
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