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US economy may bottom out
Source: Agencies |
September 21, 2012, Friday
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THE US economy is showing signs of finally bottoming out: Americans are on the move again after record numbers had stayed put, more young adults are leaving their parents' homes to take a chance with college or the job market, once-sharp declines in births are leveling off and poverty is slowing.
New 2011 census data released yesterday offer glimmers of hope in an economic recovery that technically began in mid-2009. But not all is well. The jobless rate remains high at 8.1 percent. Home ownership fell for a fifth straight year to 64.6 percent, the lowest in over a decade. More Americans are turning to food stamps, while residents in housing that is seen as "crowded" remained at 1 percent, tied for the highest since 2003.
And growth in the foreign-born population is slowing.
Taken as a whole, analysts say the latest data offer proof of a stabilizing US economy. Coming five years after the housing bust, such a leveling off would mark an end to the longest and most pernicious economic decline since World War II.
"We may be seeing the beginning of the American family's recovery from the Great Recession," said Andrew Cherlin, a professor of sociology and public policy at Johns Hopkins University. He pointed to the upswing in mobility and to young men moving out of their parents" homes - signs that young adults were looking for jobs.
"It could be the modest number of new jobs or simply the belief that the worst is over," Cherlin said.
Richard Freeman, a Harvard University economist, said the data point to a "fragile recovery," with the economy still at risk of falling back into recession, depending in part on who is president and whether Congress averts a "fiscal cliff" of deep government spending cuts and higher taxes taking effect in January.
New 2011 census data released yesterday offer glimmers of hope in an economic recovery that technically began in mid-2009. But not all is well. The jobless rate remains high at 8.1 percent. Home ownership fell for a fifth straight year to 64.6 percent, the lowest in over a decade. More Americans are turning to food stamps, while residents in housing that is seen as "crowded" remained at 1 percent, tied for the highest since 2003.
And growth in the foreign-born population is slowing.
Taken as a whole, analysts say the latest data offer proof of a stabilizing US economy. Coming five years after the housing bust, such a leveling off would mark an end to the longest and most pernicious economic decline since World War II.
"We may be seeing the beginning of the American family's recovery from the Great Recession," said Andrew Cherlin, a professor of sociology and public policy at Johns Hopkins University. He pointed to the upswing in mobility and to young men moving out of their parents" homes - signs that young adults were looking for jobs.
"It could be the modest number of new jobs or simply the belief that the worst is over," Cherlin said.
Richard Freeman, a Harvard University economist, said the data point to a "fragile recovery," with the economy still at risk of falling back into recession, depending in part on who is president and whether Congress averts a "fiscal cliff" of deep government spending cuts and higher taxes taking effect in January.
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