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World Bank forecasts 9.5% China growth
By Wang Yanlin |
March 17, 2010, Wednesday
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Online Edition
Online Edition
CHINA'S economy is projected to grow 9.5 percent on an annual basis this year, with a shift from government-led investment to a mix of solid consumption, recovered exports and stable investment, the World Bank said today.
The Washington-based bank suggested more flexibility in China's implementation of its fiscal and monetary policies, given the remaining uncertainty about the world economy.
"Despite the global recession, China's economy grew 8.7 percent in 2009, and the growth momentum continued in the first months of 2010," said the World Bank's latest China Quarterly Update, a regular assessment of the China's economy.
It lay the ground for the bank to give an optimistic forecast of 9.5 percent for China's economic growth this year, which is well above the Chinese central government's target of 8 percent and United Nations' earlier prediction of 8.8 percent.
Ardo Hansson, the bank's lead economist for China, said that government-led investment is bound to slow down this year.
"But exports are likely to continue to recover amidst a pick up in the global economy, real estate activity is likely to grow strongly this year, and consumption should remain solid,' Hansson said.
Inflation risk, which triggered wide concerns in recent months due to fast accelerating consumer prices and producer prices, is not a big threat in the view of the bank.
It said the Consumer Price Index, a major gauge of inflation, is on course to be significant in 2010 after being negative last year. "But with global price pressure likely to subdue amidst large spare capacity internationally, China's inflation is unlikely to reach high rates in 2010, "Hansson said.
The Washington-based bank suggested more flexibility in China's implementation of its fiscal and monetary policies, given the remaining uncertainty about the world economy.
"Despite the global recession, China's economy grew 8.7 percent in 2009, and the growth momentum continued in the first months of 2010," said the World Bank's latest China Quarterly Update, a regular assessment of the China's economy.
It lay the ground for the bank to give an optimistic forecast of 9.5 percent for China's economic growth this year, which is well above the Chinese central government's target of 8 percent and United Nations' earlier prediction of 8.8 percent.
Ardo Hansson, the bank's lead economist for China, said that government-led investment is bound to slow down this year.
"But exports are likely to continue to recover amidst a pick up in the global economy, real estate activity is likely to grow strongly this year, and consumption should remain solid,' Hansson said.
Inflation risk, which triggered wide concerns in recent months due to fast accelerating consumer prices and producer prices, is not a big threat in the view of the bank.
It said the Consumer Price Index, a major gauge of inflation, is on course to be significant in 2010 after being negative last year. "But with global price pressure likely to subdue amidst large spare capacity internationally, China's inflation is unlikely to reach high rates in 2010, "Hansson said.
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