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March 15, 2014

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IEA: Global oil demand set to rise faster than expected

GLOBAL oil demand will rise faster than expected as the world’s economic outlook improves, the International Energy Agency said yesterday, warning that the crisis in Ukraine can still drag down overall consumption.

The latest demand estimate of 92.7 million barrels per day is an increase of 95,000 barrels a day above last month’s forecast, with emerging markets expected to provide most of the gain, the IEA said.

It is also the fourth straight month that the agency is raising its demand outlook.

“Growth momentum is expected to benefit from a more robust global economic backdrop,” said the IEA in its monthly oil market report.

“The pace of growth will likely build through the year, as underlying macro-economic conditions improve, but the standoff in Ukraine has increased downside risk to the forecast,” it added.

Apart from a jump in prices on March 3, oil markets have been relatively calm despite the standoff between the West and Russia over Ukraine since February 22, when a wave of street protests ousted Ukraine’s pro-Kremlin President Viktor Yanukovych.

Since then, Russian troops have seized control of Crimea, a small peninsula home to a mainly ethnic Russian population. The region will hold a vote tomorrow on joining Russia or remaining in Ukraine.

The IEA said “one factor ... is almost certainly the fact that Ukraine is not a major transit country for Russian-origin oil sold to the West.”

It added that both parties are “closely linked in a consumer-producer relationship that remains very important to both parties.”

In 2013, Europe got 36 percent of its net crude imports from Russia, which in turn relied on Europe for 71 percent of its crude exports.




 

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