OPEC lifts oil demand forecasts on improving global economies
Print Edition
OPEC yesterday revised upward its growth forecast for global oil demand this year and maintained projected record levels of world consumption in 2016, despite turbulent market conditions spurred by financial instability in Greece and China.
In its monthly report for August, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said it expects world oil demand to grow by 1.38 million barrels per day — about 90,000 more than it forecast in July.
The cartel also stuck to last month’s prognosis that demand growth next year would reach 1.34 million barrels per day thanks to global GDP expansion set to reach 3.5 percent, up from 3.2 percent this year.
“Given the better-than-expected growth in global oil demand so far this year, together with some signs of a pickup in the economies of the major consuming countries, crude oil demand in the coming months should continue to improve and, thus, gradually reduce the imbalance in oil supply-demand fundamentals,” the report said.
Oil prices fell 60 percent between June last year and January, to a low of US$45, due in part to a supply glut caused by the boom in United States shale oil.
OPEC, however, which has traditionally defended price levels by cutting output when necessary, dramatically switched strategy last November when it opted to leave its production target unchanged. It has since stuck to this strategy, keeping its output target level at 30 million barrels per day.
On Monday, the World Bank warned that the lifting of sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program will have a “significant impact” on the world oil market next year. Its return to the global market will eventually add about a million barrels of oil a day, lowering prices by US$10 per barrel, it said.
Oil markets have also been shaken by China’s reduced economic growth and stock market crisis.
As a result of losses “triggered by China’s stock market slump” and global supply glut, US crude prices posted their biggest monthly drop since the 2008 financial crisis, with Texas light sweet falling to US$47.12 per barrel on July 31.
Meanwhile, general expectations for Europe’s oil demand this year have improved, but remain “coupled with large uncertainties” over the region’s economic developments, particularly in Greece, OPEC said.
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