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May 31, 2011

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Russia surprises with rate rise

RUSSIA'S central bank unexpectedly lifted its overnight deposit rate while leaving the benchmark refinancing and repo rates unchanged yesterday as it seeks to curb inflation without hurting economic growth.

Bank Rossii lifted the fixed overnight deposit rate to 3.5 percent from 3.25 percent, the fourth increase since December, the Moscow-based central bank said yesterday.

The refinancing rate and overnight auction-based repurchase rates were left at 8.25 percent and 5.50 percent.

Chairman Sergei Ignatiev is trying to keep inflation between 6 percent and 7 percent without stifling credit flows and undermining an economic recovery in the world's biggest energy supplier.

With the inflation rate now "in order," the bank will be "very cautious" in raising borrowing costs to "avoid hurting economic growth," Ignatiev said.

"It appears that inflation is stabilizing, although it's very high, and they will definitely remain in a hiking mode," Sanna Kurronen, a Helsinki-based economist at Danske Bank A/S, said before the release. "Their priority has been assuring growth and they have been quite passive with rate hikes."

Policy makers left mandatory reserve ratios unchanged. Economists expected Bank Rossii to begin lifting them in the second half after increases in the first three months of this year.

The central bank lifted rates last month to limit inflation that has held above the bank's 2011 target since October. The annual rate in April matched an 18-month high of 9.6 percent.

The slowest-growing economy among the BRIC nations, Russia is relying on revenue from oil to bolster its recovery, while seeking ways to reduce its reliance on energy exports. Oil at more than US$100 a barrel is no longer stoking economic expansion, which slowed to 4.1 percent in the first quarter from 4.5 percent in the fourth. Growth slid to 3.3 percent in April, the Economy Ministry said last week.

The economy will expand 4.5 percent next year, compared with 9.1 percent for China and 7.8 percent for India, the International Monetary Fund forecast in April.

Consumer-price growth in May will probably match the rate during the same month last year, when prices gained 0.5 percent, Ignatiev said.



 

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