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With crude around US$100 US gas prices stay high

THE price of oil lingered around US$100 a barrel this week, helping to keep US retail gasoline prices at their highest levels ever for this time of year.

Crude has ranged from about US$98 per barrel to around US$102 per barrel this week. Yesterday benchmark oil fell US$2.21 to end at US$98.33 per barrel in New York.

Oil and gasoline prices are staying high now because of tension in the Middle East and worries about Europe sliding into a recession.

Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, if the US and other countries impose more sanctions on it because of its nuclear program. Many analysts doubt that Iran could set up a blockade for long, but any supply shortages would cause supplies to tighten.

The US average for gasoline was US$3.38 per gallon (89 cents a liter) yesterday. Pump prices peaked at about US$4 a gallon (US$1.05 a liter) in May as crude oil approached US$114 a barrel.

Gas prices are likely to move up or down based on the outcome, PFGBest analyst Phil Flynn said. If the situation calms down, retail gas prices could fall from 25 cents to 50 cents a gallon. If the situation intensifies, prices could increase by that much.
"It's that much of a wild card," Flynn said. "I think it's a very volatile situation and I think we could go either way."

Europe is still struggling with massive debt problems that threaten to drive the region into recession. The uncertainty about how the crisis will play out is helping to keep oil prices up as well.

Retail gasoline consumption in the US has been falling steadily for the past 10 months, according to surveys by MasterCard SpendingPulse. Although recent data points to the US economy slowly improving, many drivers appear to be sticking with habits they picked up during the recession - watching how much they spend on expensive gas and combining trips to save on fuel.

Those habits may continue. Flynn and other analysts think that the national average for gas could reach US$4 per gallon again by spring, as refiners switch to more expensive anti-smog blends ahead of the summer driving season.

In other energy trading, natural gas fell 3 cents to finish at US$2.39 per 1,000 cubic feet. The price remains near a 10-year low because a mild winter has cut demand and supplies remain plentiful. Heating oil fell 5 cents to end at US$2.99 per gallon and gasoline futures fell 3 cents to US$2.78 per gallon.

Brent crude fell US$1.69 to finish at US$111.55 per barrel in London.



 

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