China’s foreign trade growth slows
Print Edition
CHINA’S exports and imports grew at a slower rate last month, reinforcing signs of fragility in the world’s second-largest economy that could prompt policy-makers to roll out more stimulus measures.
Exports, which have been the lone bright spot in the past few months, rose 11.6 percent year on year in October, slowing from 15.3 percent in September, the General Administration of Customs said yesterday.
A decline in China’s leading index on exports in the month pointed to weaker export growth in the next two to three months, the administration said.
“The economy still faces relatively big downward pressure as exports face uncertainties while weak imports indicate sluggish domestic demand,” said Nie Wen, an economist at Hwabao Trust in Shanghai. “The central bank might continue to ease policy in a targeted way.”
Imports rose 4.6 percent year on year last month, slowing from 7 percent in September, and were weaker than expected.
That left China with a near record-high trade surplus of US$45.4 billion for October.
Annual growth slowed to 7.3 percent in the third quarter — the weakest since the height of the global financial crisis — as a cooling property sector weighed on domestic demand.
Recent purchasing managers’ surveys on factory and services showed the economy lost further momentum heading into the fourth quarter, putting Beijing’s official growth target for the year at even greater risk.
Customs data showed China’s exports of precious metals and jewelry rose 187 percent year on year in October, slowing from 678 percent the previous month.
Exports to the United States, China’s top export destination, rose 10.9 percent in October, largely matching September’s rise, while exports to the European Union, its second-biggest market, grew 4.1 percent, slowing from 14.9 percent in September.
China’s external trade environment might slightly improve next year but it still faces uncertainties, the Ministry of Commerce said in a report published yesterday.
The combined exports and imports in the first 10 months rose 3.8 percent year on year, the administration said. That suggests China will miss its trade growth target — of 7.5 percent — for a third consecutive year.
A deluge of China data over the coming week is likely to show a persistent cooling in the economy, reinforcing views that authorities might have to do more to fight slackening growth.
The country’s reform-minded leaders have refrained from acting forcefully, such as by cutting interest rates. That has caused concerns among some analysts that the modest policy measures might not be enough to prevent a sharper slowdown.
The central government on Thursday unveiled detailed measures to support imports of high-tech equipment, resource products and consumer goods, in its latest efforts to support the economy and rebalance trade.
The same day, the People’s Bank of China pledged to maintain its modest policy support to help the economy weather increasing headwinds in the near term, but stressed it would not flood the markets with cash.
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