Fall in imports fuels record-high surplus amid slow trade rise
Print Edition
CHINA’S trade surplus hit a record high benefiting from a fall in imports although trade grew slowly in November, data from the General Administration of Customs showed yesterday.
The fall in imports reinforced a weak domestic demand and an economic slowdown in China, which could prompt policy-makers to unveil more stimulus measures, analysts said.
Exports, the lone bright spot in the past few months, rose 4.7 percent from a year earlier to US$211.6 billion in November, but slower than the pace of 11.6 percent in October.
Imports, defying market hopes of a mild growth, fell 6.7 percent to US$157.1 billion last month. It was the first drop since August and a reversal from October’s rise of 4.6 percent.
The trade surplus totaled US$54.5 billion last month, up 61.4 percent year on year and above October’s US$45.4 billion.
“Trade turned out to be weak,” said Lian Ping, chief economist at the Bank of Communications. “The fall in imports suggested that China’s economy was still under great downward pressure.”
Earlier surveys among factories’ purchasing managers also showed the economy lost momentum going into the fourth quarter, risking China’s official growth target for the year even more.
In the first three quarters, China’s economy grew 7.4 percent, a shade under the official target of 7.5 percent.
As the combined export and import figure in the first 11 months rose 3.4 percent year on year, China may miss its trade growth target of 7.5 percent for a third straight year, customs said.
Lian said China may cut rates again — a view shared by Wang Tao, a UBS economist — in the remainder of this year or early next year.
Wendy Chen, an economist at Nomura, said other activity data to be released this week would show more evidence of weak growth momentum, with industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment all decelerating from October.
In the first 11 months, China’s trade with the European Union, the country’s biggest trading partner, rose 8.9 percent, while that with the United States gained 5.2 percent, according to customs.
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