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Stocks end July with big gain, Dow gains 7.1%
Source: Agencies |
July 31, 2010, Saturday
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Online Edition
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STOCKS had a fitting end to a choppy July as prices seesawed their way to a narrowly mixed finish. The market still had its best month in a year.
Investors had an ambivalent response yesterday to the government's gross domestic product report, which showed that economic growth slowed in the April-June quarter. The Dow Jones industrial average fell almost 120 points in early trading, then ratcheted up and down until the close. The Dow ended down just a point, and the other big indexes had similarly small moves.
The day was much like the rest of July, which saw investors alternately buying on strong earnings reports and selling on weak economic numbers. The Dow rose 7.1 percent for the month, its best showing since it gained 7.8 percent in July 2009.
A repeat performance in August seemed unlikely due to the market's current pessimism, especially since the bulk of second-quarter earnings reports are in. Many investors, uncertain about the where the market is heading, stayed on the sidelines for much of July or moved money into safer investments. Even on days when the Dow was up 100 or 300 points, trading volume was unusually low.
"It's a very cautious environment today," said Rob Lutts, president, CIO at Cabot Money Management. That caution, he said, is what leads investors to sell.
The Commerce Department's GDP report was troubling for the market, and followed recent reports on housing and unemployment that showed the recovery has slowed. GDP grew at an annual pace of 2.4 percent in the second quarter, less than the 2.5 percent forecast of economists polled by Thomson Reuters.
Analysts said that as investors read deeper into the report, it didn't look as bad as they initially thought. They found some good news in the consumer savings rate.
Business spending on equipment and software also jumped in the second quarter by the biggest amount in 13 years. That was encouraging because it means companies could be getting ready to start hiring.
"We had a little bit for the bulls and a little bit for the bears," Lutts said, "and ultimately no one is really happy."
The Dow fell 1.22, or 0.01 percent, to 10,465.94. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 0.07, or 0.01 percent, to 1,101.60, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 3.01, or 0.1 percent, to 2,254.70.
Rising stocks outpaced losers by about 3 to 2 on the New York Stock Exchange where volume came to a very light 1.1 billion shares.
Volume usually falls off in the summertime but stays strong during July. This July was particularly slow.
"The biggest crowds aren't on the trading floor, they are on the beach. People don't want to be involved in the market now," said Jeffrey Frankel, president of Stuart Frankel & Co. "One day they are up, one day they are down. Nothing is making any sense. That's why there is no volume."
Treasurys benefited from the uncertainty. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 2.91 percent from 2.99 percent. Its yield is often used as a benchmark for interest rates on mortgages and other consumer loans. A yield below 3 percent suggests investors are worried about long-term growth and don't fear inflation will be a problem anytime soon. Inflation is a threat to the long-term value of bonds.
Investors did get some mildly good news from two other economic reports. The University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment index for July rose slightly more than expected to 67.8 from a preliminary reading of 66.5. Economists expected it to rise to 67.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, which measures manufacturing activity in the Midwest, rose unexpectedly to 62.3 this month from 59.1 in June. Economists were expecting a drop to 56.5. The report is seen as an indicator of how the Institute for Supply Management's nationwide index is likely to come in when it's released on Monday.
Traders were also being cautious because they're waiting for a series of key reports next week that will give a first look at how the economy is doing in the current quarter. The Institute for Supply Management releases reports on the manufacturing and services sectors during July and the Labor Department issues its report on employment for this month.
Economists predict the two ISM reports will show manufacturing and the services industry expanded in July but at a slower pace than in June.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate likely inched higher to 9.6 percent in July from 9.5 percent in June as the government laid off more temporary census workers. Private employers likely added 90,000 jobs during the month, slightly better than in June.
Investors had an ambivalent response yesterday to the government's gross domestic product report, which showed that economic growth slowed in the April-June quarter. The Dow Jones industrial average fell almost 120 points in early trading, then ratcheted up and down until the close. The Dow ended down just a point, and the other big indexes had similarly small moves.
The day was much like the rest of July, which saw investors alternately buying on strong earnings reports and selling on weak economic numbers. The Dow rose 7.1 percent for the month, its best showing since it gained 7.8 percent in July 2009.
A repeat performance in August seemed unlikely due to the market's current pessimism, especially since the bulk of second-quarter earnings reports are in. Many investors, uncertain about the where the market is heading, stayed on the sidelines for much of July or moved money into safer investments. Even on days when the Dow was up 100 or 300 points, trading volume was unusually low.
"It's a very cautious environment today," said Rob Lutts, president, CIO at Cabot Money Management. That caution, he said, is what leads investors to sell.
The Commerce Department's GDP report was troubling for the market, and followed recent reports on housing and unemployment that showed the recovery has slowed. GDP grew at an annual pace of 2.4 percent in the second quarter, less than the 2.5 percent forecast of economists polled by Thomson Reuters.
Analysts said that as investors read deeper into the report, it didn't look as bad as they initially thought. They found some good news in the consumer savings rate.
Business spending on equipment and software also jumped in the second quarter by the biggest amount in 13 years. That was encouraging because it means companies could be getting ready to start hiring.
"We had a little bit for the bulls and a little bit for the bears," Lutts said, "and ultimately no one is really happy."
The Dow fell 1.22, or 0.01 percent, to 10,465.94. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 0.07, or 0.01 percent, to 1,101.60, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 3.01, or 0.1 percent, to 2,254.70.
Rising stocks outpaced losers by about 3 to 2 on the New York Stock Exchange where volume came to a very light 1.1 billion shares.
Volume usually falls off in the summertime but stays strong during July. This July was particularly slow.
"The biggest crowds aren't on the trading floor, they are on the beach. People don't want to be involved in the market now," said Jeffrey Frankel, president of Stuart Frankel & Co. "One day they are up, one day they are down. Nothing is making any sense. That's why there is no volume."
Treasurys benefited from the uncertainty. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 2.91 percent from 2.99 percent. Its yield is often used as a benchmark for interest rates on mortgages and other consumer loans. A yield below 3 percent suggests investors are worried about long-term growth and don't fear inflation will be a problem anytime soon. Inflation is a threat to the long-term value of bonds.
Investors did get some mildly good news from two other economic reports. The University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment index for July rose slightly more than expected to 67.8 from a preliminary reading of 66.5. Economists expected it to rise to 67.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, which measures manufacturing activity in the Midwest, rose unexpectedly to 62.3 this month from 59.1 in June. Economists were expecting a drop to 56.5. The report is seen as an indicator of how the Institute for Supply Management's nationwide index is likely to come in when it's released on Monday.
Traders were also being cautious because they're waiting for a series of key reports next week that will give a first look at how the economy is doing in the current quarter. The Institute for Supply Management releases reports on the manufacturing and services sectors during July and the Labor Department issues its report on employment for this month.
Economists predict the two ISM reports will show manufacturing and the services industry expanded in July but at a slower pace than in June.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate likely inched higher to 9.6 percent in July from 9.5 percent in June as the government laid off more temporary census workers. Private employers likely added 90,000 jobs during the month, slightly better than in June.
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