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iPhone 6 likely to boost China's export growth: economist
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Apple Inc.'s latest iPhone 6, an American product assembled in China, is likely to add about 1 percent export growth per month for the rest of 2014 after the product is launched later this year, an economist has said.
A boost of 1 percentage point to export growth is no small matter, especially for the currency market, which closely tracks export growth numbers, says Lu Ting, chief China economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in a recently published research note.
In the first seven months of 2014, China's exports edged up 3 percent year-on-year to US$1.28 trillion, customs data showed.
Apple Inc. said on Aug. 28 that it will host a special event on September 9, at which the company is widely expected to launch iPhone 6.
Sales of iPhone 6, with high volumes predicted to be sold, are expected to impact macro indicators in the countries and regions involved in making it.
All iPhones, except those sold in China, are counted as China's exports. So the launch of iPhone 6 will surely provide a boost to China exports when these products are shipped out of China for global end users, Lu said.
According to Lu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects 37 million and 63 million iPhones 6 to be produced in China in the third quarter and the fourth quarter of this year, respectively.
After deducting the iPhone 6 sold within China, there should be around 83 million units to be shipped out of China, which will translate into US$25.2 billion in total export value given an estimated sales price of US$607.5 per unit, he said.
Using the average monthly China exports data in 2014 as proxy, Lu estimated iPhone 6 shipments to add about 1 percent to China monthly exports for the rest of this year.
The economist also said that the launch of iPhone 6 will only have a negligible impact on growth of China's gross domestic product (GDP) this year, which is expected to approach US$10 trillion.
"We estimate that manufacturing iPhone 5S in China only adds about US$8 per unit versus an average retail sales price at US$749 and the value added in iPhone 6 might be only slightly improved," he said.
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