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April 3, 2013

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Manufacturing extends rot across Europe

MANUFACTURING across Europe's major economies endured another month of mostly deep decline in March, dragging down even former bright spots, surveys showed yesterday.

The slump among British manufacturers eased slightly, but overall purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) made gloomy reading. Factories in Germany and Ireland, the relative stars of February's PMIs, fell back into decline last month.

Everywhere else, the industrial rot extended.

Spanish manufacturing declined at its fastest pace since October, which followed news the government will revise its economic forecasts for 2013 to show a 1 percent contraction, from a 0.5 percent decline previously.

In France, factory activity retreated for a 13th month and car registrations there dived 16.4 percent in March, further underlining the malaise sweeping through the eurozone's second-biggest economy.

"The eurozone's March manufacturing PMIs ... (banishes) the recovery scenario projected by the European Central Bank further beyond the realm of likely probabilities," said Lena Komileva from G+ Economics in London.

Markit's Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell in March to 46.8 from 47.9 in February - slightly better than an preliminary estimate of 46.6, but extending its run below the 50 mark that separates growth and contraction for a 20th month.

"Based on the experience of the past four years, the first quarter's Eurozone PMI average of 47.5 is consistent with no GDP growth (at best) and a weakening momentum into the second quarter," Komileva said.

The escalation of the crisis in Cyprus in the final week of March, however, had little bearing on eurozone manufacturing activity, at least judging by the fact the final PMI reading was no worse than the preliminary.

"We've had the Italian election, we've had the Cyprus story; we're a little bit uncertain to what extent that has played in," said Anatoli Annenkov, senior European economist at Societe Generale. "But certainly, on the manufacturing side, that's a little bit weaker than what we'd hoped."

Combined with data on Monday from the United States, which showed factory activity growing at a three-month low, March made for an ominous month for the global economy, especially given the extent of jubilance on stock markets so far this year.

Data from Britain were mixed. The UK manufacturing purchasing PMI index came in at 48.3, only slightly above February's surprisingly poor reading of 47.9.





 

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