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October 24, 2013

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Savills still sees bright sparks in China real estate

Jeremy Helsby became chief executive of Savills Plc in 2008, after working over two decades for the global real estate service group.

In recent years, he has been a frequent visitor to the Chinese mainland, a region of growing importance to the company. Savills is predicting China will contribute between 10 percent and 15 percent of global profit this year, up from about 10 percent in 2012.

The company operates 13 offices on the mainland — Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Tianjin, Dalian, Chongqing, Shenyang, Xiamen, Zhuhai and Qingdao.

On a trip to China this month, Helsby visited Chengdu, capital of Sichuan Province and a gateway to China’s western development campaign. He also made a brief visit to Shanghai, where he sat down with Shanghai Daily to share some of his views on global real estate trends and China’s ongoing property boom.

Q: What major trends do you see in the global real estate market?

A: We see a very patchy market at the moment, with individual markets showing varied characteristics. In America, massive changes happened over the last two years, with lots of confidence coming back into the market, particularly in first-tier cities. In Europe, the UK is a core market for Savills, accounting for half of our business. The UK property market, led by London, has seen a resurgence in home prices this year. This is thanks, in part, to government support as well as the inflow of foreign capital. The London real estate market is the strongest I’ve seen in probably 35 years, and I see no reason why that will change. Ireland is also very strong.

In continental Europe, it depends where you are. The eurozone is still basically in trouble, and foreign investors are not so keen on it at the moment. France is a little bit less attractive, but Paris remains strong. Germany is strong and attracting more investment. Spain, Portugal and Italy are still tough. Northern Europe is still stable, and Scandinavia is strong.

Asian markets have fallen off slightly, largely in response to government measures to protect local markets, most notably in Singapore and Hong Kong. On China’s mainland, price growth still remains fairly robust. The government has refrained from issuing any new regulations over the last six months, and end-user demand continues to fuel the market. Overall, since late last year, the appetite for international real estate has increased. I don’t see it a short-term trend as long as interest rates remain low. Property will continue to attract investment from around the world.

Global capital, and in particular money from Asia, is flowing into the UK, Europe and the US at the moment, with these regions seeing a stabilization of their economic conditions. While an economic recovery is evident, we are not out of the woods yet. First-tier or “gateway” cities are the main target, with investment trickling down to lower-tier cities.

Q: What do you think about the trend of Chinese wealth, both corporate and private, investing in real estate in the UK and other overseas markets?

A: I do see this trend continuing. There is huge wealth in China, both corporate and private. You will obviously see more Chinese corporate money flowing to the West as investors need to diversify and expand. I think Chinese investors are wise and sophisticated, measured and sensible. They study the market, and they often take a local partner.

We deal with many high net-worth investors from around the world, and they are all looking to develop large portfolios of properties in key gateway cities like London. We saw the same trend with Russians, Middle East investors and the Japanese, and now we are seeing many more Chinese buyers looking to develop a portfolio of international properties. Now is a great time for Chinese buyers to look overseas. The yuan is the strongest it has ever been, financing overseas is inexpensive and governments are looking to encourage foreign investment. Additionally, markets such as the US have bottomed out and represent great value. London is showing robust price growth but still maintains higher yields than investments in China. It is viewed as one of the most secure property markets in the world.

Q: Any notable changes you have seen in the Chinese real estate market since your last visit a year ago?

A: There is massive development, both in residential and commercial sectors. Whenever I come here, it’s just getting bigger and more exciting, and the traffic is getting worse. Take Chengdu as an example. It is now a big-growth city for us. Shanghai and Beijing are much more mature and sophisticated markets, and there is less change.

China never stays still. I would say the biggest changes I’ve seen this time are the renewed confidence from developers in terms of land acquisition and the involvement by the government in terms of stimulating growth through economic reforms and pilot schemes, such as the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. One thing that never seems to change in China is the energy and the belief that nothing is impossible.

Q: What’s your outlook on China’s commercial real estate market? Do you think there are bubbles in residential property?

A: China’s commercial markets are undergoing a significant growth phase, with numerous international Grade A premises being completed every year. Any market that grows at such a pace is bound to experience some growing pains and a disconnect between supply and demand. Despite this, I am a big believer in China. Over time, demand should be able to absorb the new supply that will be coming onto the market in the next five years.

Home prices have certainly increased significantly in the last decade, and more recently in the last nine months or so. This has caused some affordability issues for many first-time buyers. Nevertheless, significant wealth is being generated in China, and more affordable housing is coming onto the market in many suburban locations, which is helping meet the needs of China’s working classes. At the same time, recent policy measures implemented by the government seem to have effectively curbed investment activities, freeing up more supply for end-users.

Q: For international investors, is it a good time for them to invest in China’s real estate market and, if so, why?

A: International investors have many interesting options available to them. Depending on how their funds are structured, China is an important place in many portfolios. China is an interesting play because it’s a low-yield, high-growth investment opportunity that is attractive to opportunistic funds or others that can balance this with a more conservative portfolio of high-yield, low-growth assets. Many investors are also very interested in the opportunities presented in the logistics market, given the rapid growth of e-commerce in China and predictions that this will continue to be a high-growth market for the foreseeable future.

Q: How do you expect Savills China to expand in coming years?

A: China will always be a key component of Savills’ global network of offices. We have recently opened a new office in Qingdao in Shandong Province, and we are actively looking at other opportunities in the country as we see our clients continue to demand greater access and support in developing operations here. We will probably open two more offices in the next 12 months in China.

 




 

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