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Airbus lifts long-term jet demand view
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Airbus raised its long-term jet demand forecast yesterday, saying the world would need to double its fleet as cities expand and Asia’s increasingly affluent middle class takes to the skies.
The European planemaker said airlines, lessors and cargo operators would need a total of 29,226 new passenger and freighter jets worth US$4.4 trillion over the next 20 years.
Its latest forecast includes 28,355 passenger jets, up 3.7 percent from its previous estimate a year ago, and 871 freighters, up 1.6 percent.
The world’s second-largest planemaker behind Boeing insisted urban population growth would help drive demand for its flagship A380 superjumbo, but acknowledged that recently weak sales had left a “couple” of open slots in 2015 production.
Sales chief John Leahy said he would unveil some new plane orders today in China, the world’s fastest growing aviation market, which is set to leapfrog the United States as an aviation market.
“In 20 years, the No. 1 market will not be the US, the No. 1 market is internally within China,” Leahy told a news conference.
One in four people from China traveled by plane last year; that number will rise to virtually the whole active population in the next two decades, he said.
Asia’s economic performance, and the projected emergence of 3 billion new middle class consumers globally with some disposable income, are the main ingredients of higher demand forecasts from both Airbus and Boeing in recent months.
In June, Boeing revised up its own 20-year market demand forecast by 3.8 percent.
Both planemakers see a surge in Asian travel that may keep production at their factories rising.
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