CHINA’S decision to scrap its decades-long one-child policy and allow all couples to have two children isn’t expected to create a deluge in maternity wards. For many young people, raising one child is expensive enough.

“I might have thought about having a second child 10 years ago, when apartments were not so expensive and I was still young,” said Laura Wang, 41, a schoolteacher with a 16-year-old son. “But now, purchasing a bigger apartment to accommodate two children and taking care of another baby would be impossible for me.”

China has an estimated 90 million families who would be qualified to have a second child. Though no formal research on their willingness to do so has been conducted, anecdotal evidence seems to suggest relatively low interest, especially in big cities like Shanghai.

“It’s good news for those who want a second baby,” said Lisa Zhang, a 38-year-old doctor and mother of a 7-year-old. “But not me.”

She said she thinks about how much she has had to depend on her parents to take care of her son. She remembers the nights of sleep lost when he was sick. She remembers all the complications of trying to get him into the best kindergarten and primary school.

“I am still not sure how I managed to do all those things through the years,” Zhang said. “But I know I couldn’t go through it all over again. My parents are approaching 70 now, and it wouldn’t be fair to them either.”

The Chinese government announced the change in family-planning policy in late October. It followed earlier relaxations that first allowed couples from one-child families to have a second child and then allowed families where only one spouse came from a one-child family to have two children. Neither proved particularly successful in upping the birth rate. Only about 5 percent of the 370,000 couples eligible under the second easing applied for a second child by the end of December 2014.

The decision to allow all couples to have two children reflects concern about the rapidly shifting demographic structure of China. The elderly population is growing faster then the workforce needed to support old-age services.

In 2012, China’s labor force peaked at 940 million, and then decreased to 930 million in 2014. It is estimated that the number of workers will drop by about 29 million in the decade ending in 2020. Meanwhile, the cost of pensions, healthcare and other social services for retirees is mounting.

According to a nationwide survey cited by “China Women’s News” in August, about 52 percent of respondents who said they wanted a second child were men, while 45 percent were women.

Some joint research by the Shanghai Women’s and Children’s Working Committee and Fudan University suggests that 54 percent of married women under 45 don’t want a second child, with only 15 percent indicating that they do.

Of those who said they didn’t want a bigger family, 60 percent cited the cost of child-rearing as the main deterrent, while 30 percent said they feared they would be unable to cope physically and mentally with two children.

Cindy Zhao, 28, a clerical worker at a logistics company, and her husband, a community policeman, each earn about 6,000 yuan (US$952) a month. They have yet to have their first child. Zhao said they will most likely stop with one because they can’t afford to hire an ayi to help them out at home and she can’t afford to give up her salary to take up full-time motherhood duties.

“Giving birth to children is not simply about giving them life, but also about nurturing them into good, healthy and useful people,” said Zhao, “I don’t want to be one of those mothers who shifts responsibility for raising children to others. If I can only manage to nurture one responsible child with my best efforts, then one it is.”

According to Zhao, no female colleagues in her office have confided any desire to have a second child.

In fact, some women in Shanghai believe that motherhood diminishes their value in the workforce.

“Some employers are reluctant to hire unmarried women and childless married women because they think they will have children and it will affect their work,” said Sherry Li, an administration staff at a foreign-invested shipping company. “Now people like me, with only one child, will be added to the list.”

According to a personnel officer at a privately owned company, who wanted to be identified only by her surname Zhao, the company isn’t enthusiastic about mothers on the payroll because they frequently ask for leave for child-related matters, including picking children up from school, taking them to doctors and even attending parent meetings.

Of course, the burden of raising children in families with two working parents often falls on grandparents, like Lu Ying, 57.

She has helped her son and his wife take care of their 3-year-old son. But it’s demanding work looking after a child all day. If the couple decided to have a second child, a full-time ayi might have to be hired, she said.

“I am aging by the year and feeling my age,” said Lu. “I don’t think I have the wherewithal to do it all over again.”

In a sense, society has become inured to thinking about life in terms of only one child.

George Fang，a bank manager with a 5-year-old son, said he would be hesitant about wanting a second child. It’s not so much the cost, he said. The family could afford it. But there are considerations about interpersonal relationships.

"I did not get along well with my elder brother,” Fang said. “We competed for attention from the parents. I don't know if my wife and I could cope with that sort of thing if we had another child.”
Xu Feng, president of the Shanghai Women’s Federation, said attitudes toward children in developed cities like Shanghai mirror those in developed countries.

Traditional values, rooted in China’s agrarian culture, saw the role of women as homemakers and mothers while their husbands worked on farms or in factories.

“It shouldn’t be that way,” Xu said. “We have long called on fathers to take a bigger role in child-raising.”

Sociologist Gu Xiaoming said he worries that too many people assess the value of children by the amount of money, time and energy it takes to raise them

“A family can be a beautiful, satisfying lifestyle apart from all those considerations,” he said. “It should become a point of pride to welcome these lovely little ones into our lives.”

He said the government needs to give more incentives, like low-cost child-care centers and even subsidies on baby milk power if it wants to see more couples have two children.

“There were fines imposed on those who violated the one-child policy,” Gu said, “so there should be rewards for those giving birth to a second child.”

Chinese authorities will be hoping there are a lot of young parents like Shirley Xu, 31, who is a public relations manager for a foreign-invested bank. She is due to give birth to her first child in late November and said she would look forward to having a second child.

"I don't think the children will bother my life much,” Xu said. “Westerners manage to handle larger families. You just take things as they come and don’t get stressed.”

She and her husband have worked it all out. Only one of them will be at work at any one time, and one day every weekend will be reserved exclusively for family fun activities.