IF 2015 was already a big year for variety and reality TV shows, 2016 will be even bigger. Compared to this year, 2016 will see twice as many variety and reality shows, and although online streaming websites are aiming to attract a wider audience by producing out-of-the-box formats, experts say a crash could lie ahead. Even if they still dominate next year’s TV screens, insiders worry that especially star-centered variety shows have created a bubble that could burst.

About 400 variety and reality shows are expected to air on TV networks and online streaming services in 2016, but the majority are sequels to already successful formats that were adapted for Chinese viewers from networks abroad.

Reality talent shows are still a crowd-pleaser and networks like Hunan TV, for example, will air a new season of “The First Grader,” in which stars mentor freshman students at Shanghai Theater Academy. Although the contestants’ personal growth and their emotional struggle are central to the show, it still relies heavily on the names of celebrities.

Xia Qing, producer of the show, said that “The First Grader” was a way of transitioning shows from focusing on celebrities only to putting ordinary people in the spotlight.

“It is a show which documents the transformation of ordinary people,” Xia said. “After years of development, the era of celebrity reality series will eventually be largely replaced by reality shows that focus on ordinary people.”

Over the past decade, Xia said that the taste of the Chinese audience has shifted from simple sketches in studios and music performances to more interactive formats.

“Super Girls,” based on “American Idol,” brought the change in 2005, when the Chinese audience was suddenly asked to cheer along and vote for their favorite contestant.

But 10 years on, experts say that audiences will not only grow tired of casting and talent shows, but also of formats that put stars in extraordinary situations.

Still, 2016 will see the renewal of many of these popular, time proven shows.

Shanghai-based Dragon TV, for example, has renewed “Go Fighting!,” an outdoor reality series in which stars have to work ordinary jobs, such as cooking in a restaurant or driving a taxi. This year’s show starred a number of big screen names, including actor Huang Bo, one of the central figures. His appearance in “Go Fighting!” reportedly earned him 48 million yuan (US$7.46 million) for a day of work each week, showing just how boasted some of the shows are, experts say.

“Uncles over Flowers” will follow the format of “Grandpas over Flowers” and “Sisters over Flowers” by accompanying actors like Chen Daoming and Yang Yang on a three-week journey with their backpacks.

The 2013 hit “Dad, Where Are we Going” started the trend of adapting South Korean TV shows that put extraordinary people — usually signers or actors — into rather ordinary situations, like cooking or backpacking.

Without the celebrity factor, these formats would hardly draw a crowd, and, despite the current boom, there’s doubt over the future.

Reproducing old formats and airing sequel after sequel won’t satisfy viewers on the long run, and novel and original shows are hard to come by, experts like Xia, the producer of “The First Grader,” say.

Although celebrity shows are still among the most popular, Xia doesn’t expect the trend to last. The future of variety shows can’t rely on the fame of the protagonists, she said. Instead, networks will need to explore novel and compelling formats driven by touching, real life stories which resonate with a wider audience.

Online video streaming pioneers have also jumped on the same bandwagon, even if they are trying to give their shows a different angle or at least a new look.

Youku, for example, will air the second season of “Yif Art of Magic,” a popular magic and illusion show presented by Chinese-French magician Yif Wang.

The show bears strong resemblance to the American show “Mindfreak” with illusionist Criss Angel and drew a large following in its first season.

Tencent Online Video will present more than 10 variety shows spanning from fashion and music to family and food.

Tencent’s latest variety series “Go Fridge!,” got more than 40 million views within 36 hours since it debuted on December 3, figures the streaming service hailed as a major success.

In the series, the producers and host pay an unannounced visit to a celebrity and ask to take a peak into his or her fridge. Real-life chefs will then take the ingredients and teach viewers how to cook a simple but healthy dish for their families.

Still, it’s modeled after a South Korean show “Chef and My Fridge,” that wouldn’t work without stars. After all, taking a look at the food in someone else’s fridge is hardly the idea of entertainment. But it’s the show’s authenticity that will win viewers over, says producer Qiu Yue. Today’s viewers, he said, quickly realize when the so-called reality in reality shows is falsified or staged, which will only lead them to shut off the TV, or click on another video.

“Items in the refrigerator can help to unveil a side of a star we don’t yet know, such as their living habits, relationships and their personality,” Qiu says. “The series will shorten the distance between celebrities and ordinary viewers,” by giving them a feeling that celebrities might cook with similar ingredients as ordinary citizens.

Online video streaming service iQIYI will place a heavier focus on formats that will attract young viewers. In 2016, it will air the second season of “Going to School,” which sees a group of stars return to school or campus, thus highlighting issues that resonate with young people.

Earlier this month, iQIYI announced that it had amassed 10 million paid subscribers as of December 1 this year, doubling subscriptions in less than half a year.

Producing youth-focused TV shows has helped drive these subscriptions, even if it’s only the angle that’s new to the Chinese audience. Shot from the perspective of teenagers or young people in their 20s, school life, pets and online shopping are central topics. While watching online, users can post on the screen and will also get the chance to chat with their idols via the Internet, giving the shows a more interactive feel that aims to help create a strong fan base.

While Tencent will also air the second season of “Super Model,” which follows the format of “America’s Next Top Model,” now in its 22 season, the online pioneer will also continue shows that focus on ordinary people the general audience can identify with.

In cooperation with John de Mol’s Talpa, Tencent’s 2015 “The 15 of Us” was one of the few shows that made do without casting singers and actors. In the social experiment, 15 city dwellers find themselves in a remote mountainous area and have to become self-sufficient to achieve their dreams.

But experts warn that, too, might not be enough.

In spite of the current boom in reality and variety TV shows, the future development of such shows will bring major challenges as viewers are expected to grow tired of well-known formats, no matter the angle.

Professor Wu Gang, a TV expert from East China Normal University, says that most of the shows are still based on or inspired by successful American, South Korean and European formats, which are very likely to generate too many similar batches of shows on domestic screens.

“In terms of the short attention span of the public, it will soon cause aesthetic fatigue and only a few programs will be able survive,” Wu says.

In addition to reality mega-productions, he suggests that both TV and Internet producers develop a wider range of creative and thought-provoking shows that may take a step beyond simple entertainment and provide useful information to their audience.