LESS than three in every 100 couples eligible to have a second child under China’s relaxed family planning policy have applied to do so, shocking experts and defying their predictions about a population explosion in China.

There were various forecasts on population growth after the amended policy was put into place, ranging from 1 million to 10 million a year, but the small number of couples applying is an early indication that those worries were unwarranted.

According to the National Health and Family Planning Committee, only about 270,000 couples in which either the husband or wife is an only child have applied to have a second child by May 31 — about 2.5 percent of the eligible 11 million couples. Some 241,300 have been approved.

“It is a surprising number to everybody, including government officials and population scholars with different attitudes to the policy as well,” says Wang Feng, guest professor of Social Development and Public Policy School of Fudan University. “It has always been a big concern that the amended family planning policy may arouse a rebound in birth, but now, it just seems to be impossible.”

Government officials consider it a good start for the policy amendment but feel it’s still too early to further relax the policy.

But some  experts suggest more encouragement is needed to alter the quickly aging country.

Having a big family with lots of children — boys and girls — used to be an ideal picture of a happy family in Chinese culture. However, most Chinese families gave up that dream and went with only one child since the family planning policy was promoted at the end of the 1970s and set as a basic state policy in 1982.

The policy was designed to slow down population growth to conserve limited resources in the world’s most populous country.

Now, facing a quickly aging population in recent years, the radical policy was first relaxed in 2000 for couples where both the husband and wife were only children. It was expanded to couples where only one was an only child late last year.

The amended policy has been carried out in 29 provinces and autonomous regions — all of China’s mainland except Tibet and Xinjiang — early this year. The 11 million eligible couples’ reaction to the new policy may become an important factor as officials decide whether to amend it further. The policy was enacted in Shanghai on March 1.

One reason for the limited number may be that some provinces have only recently formalized the new law. Experts predict total applications  may not surpass 1 million this year, considering the slow start.

Financial burdens, effort and time are among the concerns expressed by couples who hesitate to have another child.

“Having a second child is no longer as simple as adding a pair of chopsticks and a quilt; it is about double the money, effort, time and everything,” says Sarah Chen, a 33-year-old secretary at a state-owned company with a 10-month-old boy in Shanghai. She is firm about having only one child.

Though having a full-time ayi to take care of the baby, Chen still feels exhausted every day trying to keep a balance between work and the child. Apart from satisfying her son’s current needs like eating, comforting and playing, she is also busy planning for his future.

She recently has searched for information on kindergartens and schools, which will determine where the couple purchases a new apartment.

“I am fully occupied by just this one baby. I don’t think it is possible for me to handle another,” says Chen.

Jenny Guo, a 32-year-old accountant in a state-owned company in Shanghai, was tempted to have a second child when the policy was heatedly discussed last year.

But the mother with a 3-year-old boy gave up the idea as many friends warned that it would be a disaster if she became a mother of two boys.

“They said that having the older one taking care of the younger one  exists only in dreams. The fact is that it will be God’s blessing if they don’t fight,” says Guo.

Chen says that though most of her friends her age fit the requirement to have a second child, only one is actually going forward. The woman with a 16-month-old daughter is currently six months pregnant. Her husband’s eagerness to have a boy is the major reason for them to make the move, regardless of the financial burden.

“It is common to see a response lag to policy change among ordinary people. Many Chinese families are now used to the one-child family pattern and feel good about it,” says Fudan University sociologist Gu Xiaoming, “There might be changes, but not now.”

And the universal trend of having fewer children when economy develops quickly may also be a major reason for limited applicants even in the long run, according to Gu.

A baby boom in the first five months is unlikely, which is a good way to start the amended family planning policy, said Yang Wenzhuang, a director at the National Health and Family Planning Committee. Still, he said, it’s not time to further relax the policy to let all couples have a second child.

There are an estimated 150 million families with one child in China. If most of them were willing to have a second baby, there would be about 90 million additional babies, which would pose serious impact on the population and economic development, Yang says.

However, many experts think such a projection neglects the number of people who have surpassed child-bearing age. They also point out that many couples just gave birth to their first baby and, in any case, won’t have a second child in a short time.

“Some policy-makers just overestimated the policy influence on people,” says Gu. “You cannot just expect that people will stop giving birth when the policy forbids and quickly shift to child-bearing when the policy is relaxed.”

According to the sixth census in 2010, the total fertility rate of the Chinese population is only 1.2, which means couples averagely have 1.2 babies in their lifetime.

The rate for Beijing and Shanghai is under 1, which is far lower than 2.1, the level that is considered to sustain a population. More encouragement is needed to alter the quickly-aging China, Gu says.

Professor Wang of Fudan University also questioned the influence of family planning policy in an interview with Caixin.com late last year.

According to Wang, the birth rate in China dropped faster from 1970-79 when contraception, birth control and quality child-rearing were advocated, rather than the first few years of the 1980s, when the strict one-child policy was carried out.

Another big drop did not happen until 1987, when the Chinese economy and family income started to rocket.

Quick economic growth, rising income, improving living standards, better education and changes in cultural perception also contribute to the birth rate decrease, said Wang. He acknowledged that the family policy helped, but was not the dominating factor that some policy-makers believe.