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El Nino effect may mean warmer winter in Shanghai
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WEATHER forecasters believe this year’s winter in Shanghai is likely to be warmer than the average, thanks to the influence of El Nino.
The China Meteorological Administration said recently that this year’s El Nino, a recurring climate pattern that warms parts of the eastern tropical Pacific, will almost be the strongest one for 17 years.
This year’s El Nino phenomenon is expected to last through at least the spring of next year and possibly reach its peak between November and December.
This means the pattern is likely to weaken the winter monsoon and create favorable conditions for a “warm winter.”
Starting in 1986, China has seen large-scale “warm winter” phenomena for many years, the administration said. However, according to the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, it is still too early to say whether this winter in Shanghai will be a warm one since other factors, such as the sea temperature of mid- and high-latitude areas and Arctic sea ice, could well come into play.
El Nino often has a straight and more obvious effect in the tropics, while areas in the mid and high latitudes are seemingly less affected by it, the bureau claimed.
Down the years Shanghai has come under the strong influence of El Nino on two occasions — once between 1982 and 1983 and the other between 1997 and 1998. But only the cold season in the latter period met the condition of a “warm winter”, which requires that the average temperature is 1 or more degrees higher than a general average for the time of the year.
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