Expert call: A farewell to farms
Source: Xinhua |
February 25, 2010, Thursday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
THE nation's rural population will shrink from 900 million to 400 million in 30 years, a top Chinese rural economist has estimated.
Han Jun, director of the Research Department of Rural Economy with the State Council's Development Research Center, a top think tank, said yesterday farmers would move to cities in increasing numbers.
"This figure is drawn from our recent studies, based on the current rate of urbanization, as well as the hosting capacity of cities," he said.
As the world's most populous country, China has a population of 1.3 billion.
The United Nations estimated in 2003 that China's population would peak in 2030 at 1.45 billion.
On the recent labor shortages in China's coastal export hubs, Han said the phenomenon didn't mean farmers were no longer seeking city jobs.
"According to our research, the majority of migrant workers who left big cities are engaged in non-farming businesses in small towns adjacent to their homes," he said.
A major cause for going home, especially for less skilled workers, was the shift of industry from the coast to inland areas, Han said. "It has made employment in their hometowns possible," he said.
Plus, migrant workers find working near home cheaper.
"They don't have to pay the rent or get children to kindergartens," Han said. "Instead, they live at home and have their kids babysat by their parents."
Han predicted the labor shortage would force employers in big cities and coastal areas to improve migrant workers' conditions.
Migrant workers usually do tough jobs for low wages and have little job security.
Han said the urbanization trend would correct the abnormal population structure in rural areas. Just like in wartime, women, children and the elderly made up most of the population.
With the increasing population shift, China should accelerate reform to make the new urban dwellers feel at home, Han said.
Han Jun, director of the Research Department of Rural Economy with the State Council's Development Research Center, a top think tank, said yesterday farmers would move to cities in increasing numbers.
"This figure is drawn from our recent studies, based on the current rate of urbanization, as well as the hosting capacity of cities," he said.
As the world's most populous country, China has a population of 1.3 billion.
The United Nations estimated in 2003 that China's population would peak in 2030 at 1.45 billion.
On the recent labor shortages in China's coastal export hubs, Han said the phenomenon didn't mean farmers were no longer seeking city jobs.
"According to our research, the majority of migrant workers who left big cities are engaged in non-farming businesses in small towns adjacent to their homes," he said.
A major cause for going home, especially for less skilled workers, was the shift of industry from the coast to inland areas, Han said. "It has made employment in their hometowns possible," he said.
Plus, migrant workers find working near home cheaper.
"They don't have to pay the rent or get children to kindergartens," Han said. "Instead, they live at home and have their kids babysat by their parents."
Han predicted the labor shortage would force employers in big cities and coastal areas to improve migrant workers' conditions.
Migrant workers usually do tough jobs for low wages and have little job security.
Han said the urbanization trend would correct the abnormal population structure in rural areas. Just like in wartime, women, children and the elderly made up most of the population.
With the increasing population shift, China should accelerate reform to make the new urban dwellers feel at home, Han said.
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