Growth slowing, but population is moving to town
Source: Agencies |
April 29, 2011, Friday
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Print Edition
Print Edition
HALF of China's 1.339 billion people on the mainland live in cities and towns, according to figures released yesterday that pointed to daunting tasks ahead as the labor market shrinks and the nation grows older.
The sixth national population census released by the National Bureau of Statistics, which showed overall population growth slowing sharply in the decade to 2010, revealed fewer Chinese than some demographers had expected.
China remains the world's most populated country but the rise of 5.84 percent was almost half the pace recorded in the last census a decade earlier. Some experts had expected China's population to reach 1.4 billion.
"China is for the first time crossing a historical landmark from a country that's dominated by people engaging in agriculture, living in the countryside, to an urbanized society," said Wang Feng, director of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy in Beijing.
The task of counting China's people required 6 million workers and revealed a population that in a single decade rose by 73.9 million, more than the population of Britain.
The census showed the proportion of young Chinese shrinking as the elderly population grows. Many demographers have said China's choke on family size threatens the future of the world's fastest-growing major economy as fewer people are left to pay and care for a greying population.
The report points to pressure for wage levels to rise as the working-age population shrinks, a need for social safety nets to support a greying nation and stress on urban infrastructure as rural migrants flood to the cities.
"The data from this census show that our country faces some tensions and challenges regarding population, the economy and social development," Ma Jiantang, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, told reporters.
The census also highlighted stark differences between China and India, which reported its own tally on March 31. India's population grew three times faster than China's over the past decade and is far younger.
The proportion of people aged 14 or younger was 16.6 percent, a fall of 6.29 percentage points from the 2000 census. Those aged 60 or older increased to 13.26 percent of the population, up 2.93 percentage points.
Such figures could encourage the government to relax restrictions that limit nearly all urban couples to one child, while rural families are usually allowed two, said Du Peng, a professor at the Population and Development Studies Center at Renmin University of China in Beijing. "The total population shows the general trend toward slowed population growth and as well an older population, and in the next five years or longer that will be an important basis for population policy," said Du.
Ma said the census vindicated the government's firm family planning policies.
"These figures have shown the trend of excessively rapid growth of China's population has been under effective control," Ma said.
The government's controls on family size have brought down annual population growth to below 1 percent and the rate is projected to start falling in coming decades. Ma did not announce any policy changes, but hinted that the census results could lead to adjustments. China, he said, would have to "actively respond to the new challenges in demographic development."
The report showed that 49.68 percent of China's population lived in urban areas by 2010, up from 36.22 percent in 2000, although the previous census used a different counting method.
By 2010, 261.4 million Chinese were counted as "migrants," meaning they were residing outside of their home villages, towns or cities. Most of them are farmers who moved to cities and coastal industrial zones to find work.
This was one of the surprises in the census data, said Wang. "Given the rapid increase in migration in the 1990s you would expect the migrant stream would slow down, but in fact the opposite is happening. Think about it - one in six Chinese are on the move away from home."
The sixth national population census released by the National Bureau of Statistics, which showed overall population growth slowing sharply in the decade to 2010, revealed fewer Chinese than some demographers had expected.
China remains the world's most populated country but the rise of 5.84 percent was almost half the pace recorded in the last census a decade earlier. Some experts had expected China's population to reach 1.4 billion.
"China is for the first time crossing a historical landmark from a country that's dominated by people engaging in agriculture, living in the countryside, to an urbanized society," said Wang Feng, director of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy in Beijing.
The task of counting China's people required 6 million workers and revealed a population that in a single decade rose by 73.9 million, more than the population of Britain.
The census showed the proportion of young Chinese shrinking as the elderly population grows. Many demographers have said China's choke on family size threatens the future of the world's fastest-growing major economy as fewer people are left to pay and care for a greying population.
The report points to pressure for wage levels to rise as the working-age population shrinks, a need for social safety nets to support a greying nation and stress on urban infrastructure as rural migrants flood to the cities.
"The data from this census show that our country faces some tensions and challenges regarding population, the economy and social development," Ma Jiantang, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, told reporters.
The census also highlighted stark differences between China and India, which reported its own tally on March 31. India's population grew three times faster than China's over the past decade and is far younger.
The proportion of people aged 14 or younger was 16.6 percent, a fall of 6.29 percentage points from the 2000 census. Those aged 60 or older increased to 13.26 percent of the population, up 2.93 percentage points.
Such figures could encourage the government to relax restrictions that limit nearly all urban couples to one child, while rural families are usually allowed two, said Du Peng, a professor at the Population and Development Studies Center at Renmin University of China in Beijing. "The total population shows the general trend toward slowed population growth and as well an older population, and in the next five years or longer that will be an important basis for population policy," said Du.
Ma said the census vindicated the government's firm family planning policies.
"These figures have shown the trend of excessively rapid growth of China's population has been under effective control," Ma said.
The government's controls on family size have brought down annual population growth to below 1 percent and the rate is projected to start falling in coming decades. Ma did not announce any policy changes, but hinted that the census results could lead to adjustments. China, he said, would have to "actively respond to the new challenges in demographic development."
The report showed that 49.68 percent of China's population lived in urban areas by 2010, up from 36.22 percent in 2000, although the previous census used a different counting method.
By 2010, 261.4 million Chinese were counted as "migrants," meaning they were residing outside of their home villages, towns or cities. Most of them are farmers who moved to cities and coastal industrial zones to find work.
This was one of the surprises in the census data, said Wang. "Given the rapid increase in migration in the 1990s you would expect the migrant stream would slow down, but in fact the opposite is happening. Think about it - one in six Chinese are on the move away from home."
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