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January 16, 2016

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Taiwan citizens go to the polls amid cross-Strait uncertainties

VOTERS In Taiwan go to the polls today to elect the island’s new leader and legislature. However, voter sentiment is weighed down by uncertainties surrounding post-election cross-Strait stability.

Liu Tung-lung, a retired senior government official and member of the Kuomintang, said he was anxious, not about the result but the uncertainty of the island’s future relations with the Chinese mainland.

“I would be upset if (KMT candidate) Eric Chu lost the election, but I could live with that. The KMT has lost before,” he said. “What worries me most is (Democratic Progressive Party candidate) Tsai Ing-wen’s cross-Strait policies, especially her stance on the 1992 Consensus.”

Candidates’ cross-Strait policies have been under close scrutiny since the campaign began. Both Chu and James Soong of the People First Party expressed support for the 1992 Consensus while Tsai has remained ambiguous.

Tsai has repeatedly promised to maintain cross-Strait relations and in her campaign rally in Kaohsiung on Thursday reiterated that if elected she would try her best to maintain cross-Strait stability. Yet she has avoided a clear statement on the 1992 Consensus.

On several occasions, she said the DPP acknowledged the historic meeting in Hong Kong in 1992 but claimed that the 1992 Consensus was “not the only option but one of the options.”

Denying the 1992 Consensus means denying the foundation of cross-Strait relations in the past two decades, Liu said. “If the elected leader held such a stance, I would be worried about our future,” he said.

Several political heavyweights have expressed similar concerns.

In his New Year’s Day speech, Ma Ying-jeou, the island’s current leader, called on his successor to carry on the current cross-Strait policies and value the 1992 Consensus.

Hau Pei-tsun, former head of Taiwan’s executive authority, said in an earlier speech that voters should choose whoever upholds the 1992 Consensus and abandon those who disagree with it.

The two sides of the Taiwan Strait had established mutual trust since 2008 mainly because the KMT accepted the 1992 Consensus, said Tang Shao-cheng of Chengchi University, Taipei.

“If the DPP candidate was elected and continued to avoid the issue, such mutual trust would be seriously undermined and this would bring huge uncertainty to the relationship,” he said.

For ordinary Taiwan citizens, a safe and peaceful society and vigorous economy are the biggest concerns.

Lien Chih-ching, a Taipei bank clerk, said people are hoping that closer cross-Strait cooperation can help boost Taiwan’s economy.

“People like me can only benefit if we live in a peaceful society with economic opportunities,” he said.

Yang Li-de, a Taipei businessman, said he expects cross-Strait relations not to return to what they were before 2008 if the DPP wins.

“The two sides should not set a ceiling for economic cooperation. I hope the relations can continue to advance,” he said.

Since 2008, the two sides have held 11 rounds of talks and signed 23 agreements including lifting bans on direct shipping, air transport and postal services in 2008, and the long-awaited Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement in 2010. The two sides also lifted the ban on mainland tourists to the island.

About 3.22 million mainland tourists visited the island in 2014, and in the first nine months of 2015 the figure reached 3.11 million.

Wang Chih-ching, a taxi driver in Kaohsiung, has been a long-time supporter of DPP, but he said mainland tourists had brought him more business.

“I hope cross-Strait exchanges will not cease and more mainland tourists come to visit after the election,” he said.

Businesspeople are concerned about the stagnation of economic cooperation across the Taiwan Strait.

Guo Tai-chiang, chairman of Taiwan Electrical and Electronic Manufacturers Association, said it is not enough to maintain the status quo, specially in economic cooperation between the two sides.

“The industry wants the cooperation to go deeper,” Guo said.

The uncertainty of cross-Strait policies is keeping businesspeople on their toes, said Lai Cheng-I, chairman of Shining Building Business Co Ltd.

“We care the most about whether the two sides will continue trade agreement talks,” he said.

Yin Chi-ming, chief executive of the “National Policy Foundation” think tank, warned in an article in Taipei-based Commercial Times that Taiwan may risk being sidelined in global trade and economic cooperation if cross-Strait relations sour and talks about the follow-up agreements of the economic cooperation framework agreement fail.

With constructive and smooth cross-Strait economic cooperation, Taiwan firms are able to expand global business with the support of the mainland market and they should not give up this advantage, Yin said.

The mainland remained Taiwan’s biggest trade partner in 2015 while the island had a trade surplus of US$27 billion.




 

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