From good intentions to deep de-carbonization
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In the run-up to the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, more than 150 governments submitted plans to reduce carbon emissions by 2030. Many observers are asking whether these reductions are deep enough.
But there is an even more important question: Will the chosen path to 2030 provide the basis for ending greenhouse-gas emissions later in the century?
According to the scientific consensus, climate stabilization requires full de-carbonization of our energy systems and zero net greenhouse-gas emissions by around 2070. Yet the countries at COP21 are not yet negotiating de-carbonization. They are negotiating more modest steps, to 2025 or 2030, called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). The United States’ INDC, for example, commits the US to reduce CO2 emissions by 26-28 percent, relative to a 2005 baseline, by 2025.
Though the fact that more than 150 INDCs have been submitted represents an important achievement of the international climate negotiations, most pundits are asking whether the sum of these commitments is enough to keep global warming below the agreed limit of 2º Celsius (3.6º Fahrenheit). They are debating, for example, whether the INDCs add up to a 25 percent or 30 percent reduction by 2030, and whether we need a 25 percent, 30 percent, or 40 percent reduction by then to be on track.
But the most important issue is whether countries will achieve their 2030 targets in a way that helps them to get to zero emissions by 2070 (full de-carbonization). The critical issue is not 2030, but what happens afterward.
Two pathways
There are two paths to 2030. We might call the first path “deep de-carbonization,” meaning steps to 2030 that prepare the way for much deeper steps after that. The second path could be called the way of “low-hanging fruit” — easy ways to reduce emissions modestly, quickly, and at relatively low cost.
Here is the reason for worry. The simplest way to reduce emissions to 2030 is by converting coal-fired power plants to gas-fired power plants. The former emit about 1,000 grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour; the latter emit around half of that. During the coming 15 years, it would not be hard to build new gas-fired plants to replace today’s coal plants. Another low-hanging fruit is great gains in the fuel efficiency of internal combustion engines, taking automobile mileage from, say, 35 miles per gallon in the US to 55 miles per gallon by 2025.
The problem is that gas-fired power plants and more efficient internal-combustion vehicles are not nearly enough to get to zero net emissions by 2070. We need to get to around 50 grams per kilowatt-hour by 2050, not 500 grams per kilowatt-hour. We need to get to zero-emission vehicles, not more efficient gas-burning vehicles.
Deep de-carbonization requires not natural gas and fuel-efficient vehicles, but zero-carbon electricity and electric vehicles charged on the zero-carbon electricity grid. The low-hanging-fruit pathway achieves a steep reduction by 2030. It probably does so at lower cost than the deep-de-carbonization pathway. The problem is that the low-hanging-fruit pathway will achieve fewer reductions after 2030.
Deep de-carbonization is technically feasible and affordable. The pathways rely on three pillars: major advances in energy efficiency, using smart materials and smart (information-based) systems; zero-carbon electricity, drawing upon each country’s best options, such as wind, solar, geothermal, hydro, nuclear, and carbon capture and storage; and fuel-switching from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles and other shifts to electrification or advanced biofuels.
A key question for Paris, therefore, is not whether governments achieve 25 percent or 30 percent reductions by 2030, but how they intend to do it.
For that, the Paris agreement should stipulate that every government will submit not only an INDC for 2030 but also a non-binding Deep De-carbonization Pathway to 2050. The US and China have already signaled their interest in this approach. In this way, the world can set a course toward de-carbonization.
Jeffrey Sachs is Director of the Earth Institute and the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. Guido Schmidt-Traub is Executive Director of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. Jim Williams is Director of the Deep De-carbonization Pathways Project. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2015.www.project-syndicate.org
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