Stock market fundamentals remain sound
Print Edition
Chinese VIEWS
Despite China鈥檚 recent stock market plunges, analysts remain upbeat because of sound economic fundamentals.
Since last November, Chinese investors have enjoyed a bullish run, which saw the Shanghai Composite Index surge from 2,425 in early November to 5,178 on June 12. However, the index plummeted more than 21 percent in the 10 trading days after that, eroding market confidence.
Even rare simultaneous cuts to the requirement reserve ratio (RRR) and key interest rates by the central bank on Saturday seemed to have failed to pep the market with the Shanghai Composite Index shedding 3.34 percent on Monday.
Bucking the trend, a surge of 5.53 percent on Tuesday dispersed mounting fears and helped establish a clearer picture of the market鈥檚 fundamentals.
In the long term, the stock market has to be anchored by strong economic conditions, similar to a man walking his dog. The man walks at a slow pace, while the dog runs back and forth.
Although the economy is facing downward pressures, recent data offers some relief. China鈥檚 industrial output growth accelerated by 0.2 percentage points month-on-month in May and fixed asset investment sped up by 0.3 percentage points, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
The total area and sales volume of commercial housing both saw faster growth month on month in May. The surveyed unemployment rate in 31 big cities dropped slightly from a month earlier to 5.1 percent. The HSBC flash manufacturing purchasing managers鈥 index recovered to 49.6 in June from May鈥檚 final reading of 49.2, beating market forecasts and showing new signs of stabilization.
Zhu Jianfang, chief economist at CITIC Securities in Beijing, said positive changes in major economic indicators showed that China鈥檚 economy is within a reasonable range and the general economic situation improved from earlier this year.
The positive signs have a close bearing on China鈥檚 new reform policies that target the country鈥檚 natural momentum, including the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional integration in the north and Yangtze River economic belt in the south. The government also rolled out policies to support innovation and entrepreneurship, promote the development of Internet Plus and Made-in-China products.
Better profitability
Li Xunlei, chief economist with Haitong Securities, said there is still room for reforms, including the liberalization of interest rates, the opening up of capital account, as well as fiscal and taxation reforms, land reform and reform of state-owned companies. 鈥淭hese reforms will be beneficial for raising the market鈥檚 efficiency in allocating resources,鈥 Li said.
As the economic situation improves, some companies will also witness better profitability, providing a more solid foundation for the health of the capital market, Zhu said. Many investors were worried the country鈥檚 monetary policy would be tightened as the economic situation eases before the central bank announced cuts in RRR and interest rates.
Lu Lei, head of the central bank鈥檚 research bureau, said the country is facing huge pressure to stabilize growth, so it is necessary to continue implementing relatively loose monetary policies to sustain growth. 鈥淭he cuts fully consider macroeconomic situations and financial stability and lower rates will support the further drop of financing costs and stabilize the expectation of corporate investment and residential consumption,鈥 Lu said.
鈥淭he general logic sustaining the capital market has not changed,鈥 said Wei Fengchun, analyst with Shenzhen-based Bosera Asset Management. The bullish cycle is grounded on expectations about the country鈥檚 reform effects, relatively loose monetary policy and growth of new sectors under government policy support. 鈥淣one of them have changed,鈥 Wei said.
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