There might still be a way out for Athens
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FOREIGN VIEWS
The Greek crisis is a tragedy for the country and a danger for the world economy. Germany is demanding that Greece continue to service its debts in full, even though Greece is clearly broke and the International Monetary Fund has noted the need for debt relief.
Yet there still is a way out of this mess. Greece鈥檚 debt should be cut sharply, and the country should remain within the eurozone. In negotiations with its creditors this spring, Greece recognized this, insisting its debt be reduced. Germany refused. Though the United States and the IMF privately sided with Greece, Germany prevailed, as creditors usually do.
Yet creditors sometimes prevail to their own detriment; by pushing the debtor to the breaking point, they end up bringing about a complete default.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble has a clear negotiating strategy, aimed at getting Greece to agree to leave the eurozone. Unfortunately for him, Greece does not want to exit, and it cannot be forced to do so under the treaties governing the European Union. What Greece wants is to remain in the eurozone, with a lower debt burden.
Indeed, a euro exit would be remarkably costly for Greece, and would almost certainly create political and social chaos 鈥 and perhaps even hyperinflation 鈥 in the heart of Europe. The value of Greek residents鈥 savings would be slashed, as euros were suddenly converted into New Drachmas. The middle class would be eviscerated. And the currency conversion would not save the country one cent with regard to its external debt, which would, of course, remain denominated in euros.
Still, Greece鈥檚 debt burden is unsustainable. Greece has defaulted on its payments to the IMF, rightly choosing pensions over debt service. The country鈥檚 creditors should now negotiate a consensual debt reduction through some combination of lower (and fixed) interest rates, reduced face value of debt, and very long maturities.
There are plenty of precedents for such a course. Sovereign debts have been restructured hundreds, perhaps thousands, of times 鈥 including for Germany. In fact, hardline demands by the country鈥檚 US government creditors after World War I contributed to deep financial instability in Germany and other parts of Europe, and indirectly to the rise of Adolf Hitler in 1933.
After World War II, however, Germany was the recipient of vastly wiser concessions by the US government, culminating in consensual debt relief in 1953, an action that benefited Germany and the world. Yet Germany has failed to learn the lessons of its own history.
Relief and reforms
Greece and Germany need to agree to a package of economic reforms and debt relief. No country 鈥 including Greece 鈥 should expect to be offered debt relief on a silver platter; relief must be earned and justified by real reforms that restore growth, to the benefit of both debtor and creditor.
And yet, a corpse cannot carry out reforms. That is why debt relief and reforms must be offered together, not reforms 鈥渇irst鈥 with some vague promises that debt relief will come in some unspecified amount at some unspecified time in the future (as some in Europe have said to Greece).
To be sure, in the Greek debacle, both sides have made countless mistakes, misjudgments, and misdeeds over the last decade, and even before.
A country does not reach Greece鈥檚 parlous state without a generation of egregious mismanagement. But nor does a country go bankrupt without serious mistakes by its creditors 鈥 first in lending too much money, and then in demanding excessive repayments to the point of the debtor鈥檚 collapse.
With both sides at fault, it is important for them not to lose the future by squabbling endlessly over the past.
Easing Greece鈥檚 debt burden while keeping the country within the eurozone is the correct and achievable path out of the crisis, and it can be accomplished easily through a mutual accord between Germany and Greece, to which the rest of Europe will subscribe.
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Professor of Sustainable Development, Professor of Health Policy and Management, and Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, is also Special Adviser to the United Nations Secretary-General on the Millennium Development Goals. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2015.www.project-syndicate.org. Shanghai Daily condensed the article.
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