Home » Opinion » Book review
China's big obstacles to low-carbon growth
By Zhu Dajian |
August 28, 2010, Saturday
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Print Edition
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AMONG stacks of books that address the efficiency of global resource use, "Factor Five" stands out for its far-reaching implications for theoretical research and policy orientation.
"Factor Five," by principal author Ernst von Weizsaecker, a noted German scholar, is a follow-up to his seminal work "Factor Four" (1994).
Von Weizsaecker's thoughts are instrumental in shaping my vision for China's low-carbon growth model.
In "Factor Four," he makes the bold claim that humanity can increase productivity fourfold and achieve the desired "decoupling" of socioeconomic development from extraction of the earth's riches.
In "Factor Five," the emphasis on technological innovation, which is central to the thesis in "Four Factor," remains unchanged. What's different is that the author now vigorously calls for incentives such as "green tax reform" or a "sufficiency and sustainable consumption strategy" to foster green innovation.
In my view, what's new about "Factor Five" can be summarized as follows:
First, about the "long waves" theory, conceived by Nikolai Kondratiev and later improved with Joseph Schumpeter's famous term "creative destruction."
The theory holds that industrialization since the 18th century has been sustained by technological breakthroughs and industrial upgrades in cycles of 30 to 50 years. To date, there have been five such "long waves."
But since the 1990s, there has been a sixth "long wave" that thrives on more efficient use of resources and energies, instead of labor productivity. Depleting resources have replaced labor shortage as the most daunting challenge to the world economic development in the 21st century.
Second, in "Factor Four" Weizsaecker envisions a scenario in 2050 in which the world's national governments will have quadrupled growth by "doubling wealth and halving resource use." Since then, wealth worldwide has indeed increased but resource consumption didn't fall as expected.
Third, Weizsaecker says we should guard against a "rebound effect" that could wipe out more than half of the gains achieved through technological advances.
Evidence abounds: building more fuel-efficient cars is futile as more and more cars hit the road; energy-efficient homes are insignificant as home ownership soars.
In developed and developing countries alike, more efficient resource use is often negated by meaningless conspicuous consumption and wholesale expansion of economic scale.
Fourth, the author points out that apart from requiring greater resource productivity, consumers should curtail excessive consumption. The satisfaction derived from enjoying services or using certain products -- rather than ownership -- should be the ultimate goal.
For instance, a healthy diet involves an appropriate amount of food, not a surfeit; driving cars for transport is not always the best or only option. An apartment doesn't have to be big to be worth living in.
To abandon consumption as the yardstick of the standard of life, it's high time we jettisoned the possession-oriented mindset.
"Factor Five" is an enlightening read for Chinese policy makers. But China is beset by four major problems in constructing a low-carbon growth model.
1. China is a labor-rich and resource-poor country. But rather than tapping its huge labor pool for growth, some industries do the opposite and exhaust resources without restraint;
2. In its rush to tap alternative energies, China fails to make more efficient its use of existing forms of energies, such as coal;
3. China reduces carbon emissions mainly through application of newfangled techniques -- instead of reforming the existing industrial structure and reducing the proportion of heavy, polluting industries such as steel, petrochemicals and cement.
4. China's lopsided emphasis on technological progress comes at the expense of management of society's consumption pattern.
"Factor Five" deserves to be perused and promoted as great food for thought for China's decision makers, business leaders, scholars and the general public who care about the country's green transition in the 21st century.
(The author is director of the Institute of Governance for Sustainable Development, Tongji University. Shanghai Daily reporter Ni Tao translated his article from the Chinese.)
"Factor Five," by principal author Ernst von Weizsaecker, a noted German scholar, is a follow-up to his seminal work "Factor Four" (1994).
Von Weizsaecker's thoughts are instrumental in shaping my vision for China's low-carbon growth model.
In "Factor Four," he makes the bold claim that humanity can increase productivity fourfold and achieve the desired "decoupling" of socioeconomic development from extraction of the earth's riches.
In "Factor Five," the emphasis on technological innovation, which is central to the thesis in "Four Factor," remains unchanged. What's different is that the author now vigorously calls for incentives such as "green tax reform" or a "sufficiency and sustainable consumption strategy" to foster green innovation.
In my view, what's new about "Factor Five" can be summarized as follows:
First, about the "long waves" theory, conceived by Nikolai Kondratiev and later improved with Joseph Schumpeter's famous term "creative destruction."
The theory holds that industrialization since the 18th century has been sustained by technological breakthroughs and industrial upgrades in cycles of 30 to 50 years. To date, there have been five such "long waves."
But since the 1990s, there has been a sixth "long wave" that thrives on more efficient use of resources and energies, instead of labor productivity. Depleting resources have replaced labor shortage as the most daunting challenge to the world economic development in the 21st century.
Second, in "Factor Four" Weizsaecker envisions a scenario in 2050 in which the world's national governments will have quadrupled growth by "doubling wealth and halving resource use." Since then, wealth worldwide has indeed increased but resource consumption didn't fall as expected.
Third, Weizsaecker says we should guard against a "rebound effect" that could wipe out more than half of the gains achieved through technological advances.
Evidence abounds: building more fuel-efficient cars is futile as more and more cars hit the road; energy-efficient homes are insignificant as home ownership soars.
In developed and developing countries alike, more efficient resource use is often negated by meaningless conspicuous consumption and wholesale expansion of economic scale.
Fourth, the author points out that apart from requiring greater resource productivity, consumers should curtail excessive consumption. The satisfaction derived from enjoying services or using certain products -- rather than ownership -- should be the ultimate goal.
For instance, a healthy diet involves an appropriate amount of food, not a surfeit; driving cars for transport is not always the best or only option. An apartment doesn't have to be big to be worth living in.
To abandon consumption as the yardstick of the standard of life, it's high time we jettisoned the possession-oriented mindset.
"Factor Five" is an enlightening read for Chinese policy makers. But China is beset by four major problems in constructing a low-carbon growth model.
1. China is a labor-rich and resource-poor country. But rather than tapping its huge labor pool for growth, some industries do the opposite and exhaust resources without restraint;
2. In its rush to tap alternative energies, China fails to make more efficient its use of existing forms of energies, such as coal;
3. China reduces carbon emissions mainly through application of newfangled techniques -- instead of reforming the existing industrial structure and reducing the proportion of heavy, polluting industries such as steel, petrochemicals and cement.
4. China's lopsided emphasis on technological progress comes at the expense of management of society's consumption pattern.
"Factor Five" deserves to be perused and promoted as great food for thought for China's decision makers, business leaders, scholars and the general public who care about the country's green transition in the 21st century.
(The author is director of the Institute of Governance for Sustainable Development, Tongji University. Shanghai Daily reporter Ni Tao translated his article from the Chinese.)
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