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Bias for boys means the real leftovers are guys, not girls
By Dee Bruce Sun |
November 29, 2011, Tuesday
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Print Edition
Print Edition
EARLIER this year, there was a conspicuous ad in Shanghai in which Xu Jinglei claimed to be "neither a leftover girl nor wealthy lady."
A multi-talented movie star with millions of fans, Ms Xu can perhaps judge for herself whether she is rich enough. But how could she be a leftover in the marriage market? Given the imbalanced gender ratio in China and the labor market structure in Shanghai, such a claim is astoundingly unreal.
With a new baby born on October 31, the human population passed 7 billion.
This baby is actually the 108 billionth; roughly 101 billion lives have passed before. Around 250,000 years ago, there were no more than a couple thousand members of the species Homo sapiens.
When they left Africa 70,000 years ago, there were estimated to be around 15,000; at the beginning of human civilization, the number was still less than 1 million.
The population reached 1 billion in the 1800s (when the Chinese made up about one-third). Then the rate of growth increased - there were 1.5 billion by the 1900s, 2.5 billion by 1950 (when the Chinese were one quarter) and became 6 billion by 1999 (Chinese were 19 percent).
After a quarter of a million years, roughly 7 percent of all humans who ever lived are coexisting right now, and you and I are in this cohort together. One cannot help but feel lucky.
What about the prospective in the end of the 21st century? An analysis of UN estimates based on the annual growth rate of 1.1 percent (slowed from 2.1 percent over the past 40 years), the world population will likely be 10 billion by the year 2100. But it could be 16 billion if things get out of control. The change seems, paradoxically, against the Malthusian trap: more abundant supply of foodstuffs resulting from productivity improvement is slowing down rather than speeding up population expansion.
The trend first revealed itself in European and North America communities since the 1880s, and is now repeating in Asian countries. The pivotal factors come from the female side: the higher the female independence, income and education, the lower the society's fertility rate.
This relationship is deemed as a "law" universally applicable. For example, the total fertility rate (or TFR, the total number of children an average woman gives birth to through her lifetime) in 1955 was 6.1 for a Brazilian woman and 5.6 for a Chinese woman on average; they have fallen to 1.8 and 1.7 respectively last year. Both are lower than 2.1, the number required to maintain the population constant.
Keep in mind that unlike in China there has not been restrictive family planning in Brazil, yet the proportional reduction is about the same.
Urbanization is key, not only in raising productivity, but coping with population growth, since cities allow higher population density and improve contact between residents. In the United States, the proportion of Americans living in urban areas was just 10 percent in the early 19th century, but increased to 90 percent in the early 20th century.
Over this period, metropolitan areas were shifted to regions with fast economic growth. Of the10 largest cities in the world, seven were in Asia in the 1800s (when Beijing was by far the largest city, followed by London), but in 1900s the eight largest cities were located in Europe and North America. Now, seven of the 10 largest cities are in Asian countries again, the others being New York City, Sao Paolo, and Mexico City, none is in Europe.
Since the open door transformation and the return to a market economy 30 years ago, the residents in Shanghai have increased by 150 percent. As the largest city in China, it is ranked ninth in the world's 10 megacities. With the exception of Tokyo (32.5 million people), however, there are no real differences between Shanghai (No. 9 with 16.7 million) and Manila (No. 10 with 16.3 million) or Seoul (No. 2 with 20.6 million).
With a full count of migrant workers and residents without hukou (residence certificate), Shanghai could well surpass Seoul to be the second largest metropolitan area in the world.
To be continued. The author is Professor of Business at California State University at Long Beach. Born in Shanghai, he studied in the US in the early 1980s and received a master's in economics and Phd in management there. He served as general manager of investment banking and the IPO office of the China Construction Bank. He was CIO of the Shenzhen Development Bank. He was a Fulbright scholar and has received numerous awards in China. He is the author of 14 books in Chinese and writes an influential newspaper column. He lives in Los Angeles. (brucesunchina@gmail.com)
A multi-talented movie star with millions of fans, Ms Xu can perhaps judge for herself whether she is rich enough. But how could she be a leftover in the marriage market? Given the imbalanced gender ratio in China and the labor market structure in Shanghai, such a claim is astoundingly unreal.
With a new baby born on October 31, the human population passed 7 billion.
This baby is actually the 108 billionth; roughly 101 billion lives have passed before. Around 250,000 years ago, there were no more than a couple thousand members of the species Homo sapiens.
When they left Africa 70,000 years ago, there were estimated to be around 15,000; at the beginning of human civilization, the number was still less than 1 million.
The population reached 1 billion in the 1800s (when the Chinese made up about one-third). Then the rate of growth increased - there were 1.5 billion by the 1900s, 2.5 billion by 1950 (when the Chinese were one quarter) and became 6 billion by 1999 (Chinese were 19 percent).
After a quarter of a million years, roughly 7 percent of all humans who ever lived are coexisting right now, and you and I are in this cohort together. One cannot help but feel lucky.
What about the prospective in the end of the 21st century? An analysis of UN estimates based on the annual growth rate of 1.1 percent (slowed from 2.1 percent over the past 40 years), the world population will likely be 10 billion by the year 2100. But it could be 16 billion if things get out of control. The change seems, paradoxically, against the Malthusian trap: more abundant supply of foodstuffs resulting from productivity improvement is slowing down rather than speeding up population expansion.
The trend first revealed itself in European and North America communities since the 1880s, and is now repeating in Asian countries. The pivotal factors come from the female side: the higher the female independence, income and education, the lower the society's fertility rate.
This relationship is deemed as a "law" universally applicable. For example, the total fertility rate (or TFR, the total number of children an average woman gives birth to through her lifetime) in 1955 was 6.1 for a Brazilian woman and 5.6 for a Chinese woman on average; they have fallen to 1.8 and 1.7 respectively last year. Both are lower than 2.1, the number required to maintain the population constant.
Keep in mind that unlike in China there has not been restrictive family planning in Brazil, yet the proportional reduction is about the same.
Urbanization is key, not only in raising productivity, but coping with population growth, since cities allow higher population density and improve contact between residents. In the United States, the proportion of Americans living in urban areas was just 10 percent in the early 19th century, but increased to 90 percent in the early 20th century.
Over this period, metropolitan areas were shifted to regions with fast economic growth. Of the10 largest cities in the world, seven were in Asia in the 1800s (when Beijing was by far the largest city, followed by London), but in 1900s the eight largest cities were located in Europe and North America. Now, seven of the 10 largest cities are in Asian countries again, the others being New York City, Sao Paolo, and Mexico City, none is in Europe.
Since the open door transformation and the return to a market economy 30 years ago, the residents in Shanghai have increased by 150 percent. As the largest city in China, it is ranked ninth in the world's 10 megacities. With the exception of Tokyo (32.5 million people), however, there are no real differences between Shanghai (No. 9 with 16.7 million) and Manila (No. 10 with 16.3 million) or Seoul (No. 2 with 20.6 million).
With a full count of migrant workers and residents without hukou (residence certificate), Shanghai could well surpass Seoul to be the second largest metropolitan area in the world.
To be continued. The author is Professor of Business at California State University at Long Beach. Born in Shanghai, he studied in the US in the early 1980s and received a master's in economics and Phd in management there. He served as general manager of investment banking and the IPO office of the China Construction Bank. He was CIO of the Shenzhen Development Bank. He was a Fulbright scholar and has received numerous awards in China. He is the author of 14 books in Chinese and writes an influential newspaper column. He lives in Los Angeles. (brucesunchina@gmail.com)
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