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America-China ties face multiple tough issues
By Richard H. Solomon |
February 10, 2012, Friday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
EDITOR'S note:
This is the second of a three-part article adapted from the author's presentation to the Shanghai Institute of International Studies on February 6. The views are his own.
After Deng Xiaoping consolidated his leadership in 1978, the bilateral relationship was dramatically transformed.
In the summer of that year, Deng shocked a visiting American delegation by proposing that China send hundreds of students to the US. And by the end of the year he had negotiated full normalization of relations with the Carter administration.
In the decade of the 1980s, China's domestic political order also dramatically changed.
"Politics in command" was replaced with Deng Xiaoping's pragmatism, and the xenophobia of the Cultural Revolution years was replaced by Deng's gai ge and kai fang policies of opening China to the world and promoting internal reform.
China was now on the road to its dramatic economic takeoff
The decade of the 1980s has been characterized as a golden era in US-China relations.
All that changed in a fundamental way, however, as the calendar turned to the 1990s.
New era
Today we can see that in the two decades since the end of the Cold War the world has entered a new era. The great power conflicts and wars that dominated the 20th century have given way to a time of international economic integration - involving both mutual benefit and competition.
Today our security concerns are about regional interstate rivalries, and weak states that permit the growth of terrorist groups. We work to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons and to deal with the corrupting influence of narcotics cartels; and pirates capturing ocean shipping for ransom.
And worldwide, ethnic and religious conflicts have replaced ideological rivalries as forces for political instability.
As well, our security is affected by issues that are not military in character: the integrity of our electronic systems - the brains and nerves of modern societies; dependable access to energy and other resources necessary for economic development; and the humanitarian impact of global climate change, pandemic diseases, pollution of the environment, and natural disasters.
And then there is a new force creating political change around the world: mass publics mobilized by the information revolution and social networking communications.
New context
How to assess US-China relations in this new international context, three decades after Deng Xiaoping's reforms?
China is now integrating into the international system - and, indeed, has become a major participant in multilateral institutions. Its economic takeoff has become a driving force for global growth.
China is providing inexpensive consumer products to the world, and capital in support of its development strategy of export led growth. Trade and finance have become major factors tying together the United States and China.
In matters of security, US-China normalization has improved regional stability. It has eased Cold War-era security burdens on both our countries. Yet, cooperation between the United States and China on matters of international security is limited.
However one assesses... China's dramatic growth, two fundamental implications stand out: First China's leaders are "riding the tiger" of high-speed domestic development. For reasons of political stability it is imperative to sustain rapid growth.
Thus, American appeals to China's leaders to adjust exchange rates, to open the economy more fully to foreign imports, to reduce their export bias, and adopt other policies that would reduce employment, are almost certain to be resisted - as they would be in our country if they were proposed by outsiders.
Secondly, the international consequences of China's "rise," however peacefully intended, are producing a defensive, if not fearful reaction abroad - despite the appeals of Chinese leaders to the world to see the country's growth as non-threatening.
History shows that serious economic problems, and even many security concerns, can be managed through determined diplomacy.
Territorial disputes, however, are the kinds of issues that can lead to military confrontation - if not war.
The author is president of the United States Institute of Peace.
This is the second of a three-part article adapted from the author's presentation to the Shanghai Institute of International Studies on February 6. The views are his own.
After Deng Xiaoping consolidated his leadership in 1978, the bilateral relationship was dramatically transformed.
In the summer of that year, Deng shocked a visiting American delegation by proposing that China send hundreds of students to the US. And by the end of the year he had negotiated full normalization of relations with the Carter administration.
In the decade of the 1980s, China's domestic political order also dramatically changed.
"Politics in command" was replaced with Deng Xiaoping's pragmatism, and the xenophobia of the Cultural Revolution years was replaced by Deng's gai ge and kai fang policies of opening China to the world and promoting internal reform.
China was now on the road to its dramatic economic takeoff
The decade of the 1980s has been characterized as a golden era in US-China relations.
All that changed in a fundamental way, however, as the calendar turned to the 1990s.
New era
Today we can see that in the two decades since the end of the Cold War the world has entered a new era. The great power conflicts and wars that dominated the 20th century have given way to a time of international economic integration - involving both mutual benefit and competition.
Today our security concerns are about regional interstate rivalries, and weak states that permit the growth of terrorist groups. We work to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons and to deal with the corrupting influence of narcotics cartels; and pirates capturing ocean shipping for ransom.
And worldwide, ethnic and religious conflicts have replaced ideological rivalries as forces for political instability.
As well, our security is affected by issues that are not military in character: the integrity of our electronic systems - the brains and nerves of modern societies; dependable access to energy and other resources necessary for economic development; and the humanitarian impact of global climate change, pandemic diseases, pollution of the environment, and natural disasters.
And then there is a new force creating political change around the world: mass publics mobilized by the information revolution and social networking communications.
New context
How to assess US-China relations in this new international context, three decades after Deng Xiaoping's reforms?
China is now integrating into the international system - and, indeed, has become a major participant in multilateral institutions. Its economic takeoff has become a driving force for global growth.
China is providing inexpensive consumer products to the world, and capital in support of its development strategy of export led growth. Trade and finance have become major factors tying together the United States and China.
In matters of security, US-China normalization has improved regional stability. It has eased Cold War-era security burdens on both our countries. Yet, cooperation between the United States and China on matters of international security is limited.
However one assesses... China's dramatic growth, two fundamental implications stand out: First China's leaders are "riding the tiger" of high-speed domestic development. For reasons of political stability it is imperative to sustain rapid growth.
Thus, American appeals to China's leaders to adjust exchange rates, to open the economy more fully to foreign imports, to reduce their export bias, and adopt other policies that would reduce employment, are almost certain to be resisted - as they would be in our country if they were proposed by outsiders.
Secondly, the international consequences of China's "rise," however peacefully intended, are producing a defensive, if not fearful reaction abroad - despite the appeals of Chinese leaders to the world to see the country's growth as non-threatening.
History shows that serious economic problems, and even many security concerns, can be managed through determined diplomacy.
Territorial disputes, however, are the kinds of issues that can lead to military confrontation - if not war.
The author is president of the United States Institute of Peace.
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