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Decline and fall of West in economics and power
By Dominique Moisi |
February 23, 2010, Tuesday
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IN 2040/2050, will demographers speak of "the white man's loneliness" in the way historians once referred to "the white man's burden" to describe the so-called "imperial responsibilities" of some European nations?
Demography is not an exact science. Countless dire predictions, from that of Malthus to that of the Club of Rome, have been proven wrong. But, according to a recent and very convincing essay published in the magazine Foreign Affairs, a dual demographic and economic trend is taking place that will result in spectacular shifts by the middle of this century.
The Western world will represent only 12 percent of the world's population, with Europeans reduced to 6 percent. The West's long period of global dominance is ending, encouraged and accelerated by its own mistakes and irresponsible behavior.
It is with these figures in mind that one must consider Barack Obama's decision not to attend the next European-American summit that was due to take place in Madrid in May.
An America that may be undergoing a process of relative if not absolute decline chooses to ignore a Europe that in US eyes is no longer a problem compared with Asia or the Middle East, and that offers little help in finding solutions to the problems that most vex Americans.
What is more serious is the impression that the American political system, with its inability to transcend party divisions and forge national consensus, is increasingly sclerotic.
As for the European Union, the problem is not what will not happen in Madrid. The EU's problem is much more what happened in Copenhagen last December at the summit to "save the planet," or what is taking place before our eyes with the challenge to the euro posed by the weakness of some of its member states.
In Copenhagen, Europe came with a common and responsible position. The EU was showing the way "to other great actors" and behaved as the "good pupil" of the world class.
Europe must realize that it cannot be seen as a model for anyone if no one any longer takes it seriously as a global actor.
(Dominique Moisi is a visiting professor at Harvard University and the author of "The Geopolitics of Emotion." Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2010. www.project-syndicate.org)
Demography is not an exact science. Countless dire predictions, from that of Malthus to that of the Club of Rome, have been proven wrong. But, according to a recent and very convincing essay published in the magazine Foreign Affairs, a dual demographic and economic trend is taking place that will result in spectacular shifts by the middle of this century.
The Western world will represent only 12 percent of the world's population, with Europeans reduced to 6 percent. The West's long period of global dominance is ending, encouraged and accelerated by its own mistakes and irresponsible behavior.
It is with these figures in mind that one must consider Barack Obama's decision not to attend the next European-American summit that was due to take place in Madrid in May.
An America that may be undergoing a process of relative if not absolute decline chooses to ignore a Europe that in US eyes is no longer a problem compared with Asia or the Middle East, and that offers little help in finding solutions to the problems that most vex Americans.
What is more serious is the impression that the American political system, with its inability to transcend party divisions and forge national consensus, is increasingly sclerotic.
As for the European Union, the problem is not what will not happen in Madrid. The EU's problem is much more what happened in Copenhagen last December at the summit to "save the planet," or what is taking place before our eyes with the challenge to the euro posed by the weakness of some of its member states.
In Copenhagen, Europe came with a common and responsible position. The EU was showing the way "to other great actors" and behaved as the "good pupil" of the world class.
Europe must realize that it cannot be seen as a model for anyone if no one any longer takes it seriously as a global actor.
(Dominique Moisi is a visiting professor at Harvard University and the author of "The Geopolitics of Emotion." Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2010. www.project-syndicate.org)
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