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November 9, 2010

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Harmonious World with Chinese characteristics

CHINA'S identity swings somewhere between that of a developing country and that of a great power; a subtle balancing act between yin and yang, as it were.

The ultimate synthesis is a China that sees itself as a "responsible world power": the self-image of a country that wishes to develop peacefully, stage a revival while remaining civilized.

The rhetoric is one of a Harmonious World calling for a more proactive foreign policy to build a world order where states can be equal and have mutual trust, common security can be achieved, diversity of civilizations can be maintained and win-win cooperation leads to common prosperity.

Nonetheless, finding a plausible balance between China's weak power identity and strong power identity confronts the leadership in Beijing with a daunting task.

While China outmatches other powers in building up comprehensive national power, it remains in many ways a fragile power.

Chinese growth is not comprehensive enough and its drivers not sufficiently robust to warrant its place at the top of a new world hierarchy.

Its military power, in spite of rapid modernization, continues to lag behind America's, especially in terms of power projection capability. Its economy is still wanting in terms of innovation and steering.

Even with all efforts to stimulate domestic consumption, China still relies too much on export and fixed asset investment.

Notwithstanding the enormous progress since the launch of the economic reforms, China still scores relatively low in terms of GDP per capita. In addition, it is saddled up with a widening gap in prosperity levels between different regions, between urban and rural areas, and between the rich and poor.

Finally, the ecological degradation of the country is confronting Beijing with a challenge of sorts.

With these factors at the back of their minds the leaders in Beijing are steering a course where what is needed for the development at home defines the contours of its policies abroad.

In the long run Chinese society can only remain stable if the current leadership manages to resolve the many problems of China's domestic development within a reasonable timeframe.

The economic engine must be kept running smoothly, an impossible feat without stable relations with its Asian neighbors and the global community.

Beijing must steer its development and growth in a way to reassure other countries and limit their qualms about China's rise and prevent them from balancing, or even worse, containing China.

While the foreign policy rhetoric at present points in the direction of a China as responsible global power, there are countervailing pressures.

As economic growth continues, the need for energy and other strategic resources increases likewise.

Pressing challenge

Sustainable economic development in a peaceful way may be the final goal, but it cannot be realized without secured access to energy resources and other strategic supplies. Like it or not, sovereignty and national core interests have to figure center stage.

China although growing fast is still at a premature stage of development and has to overcome tremendous internal difficulties if it is to survive. Consequently, it cannot as yet take up the full scale of its international responsibilities.

To cut a long story short: the domestic economic development is the most pressing challenge; the evolution of China into a responsible global power is the long-term ambition.

Yet with imbalances in the world economy growing by the day, time is pressing and the outside world's expectations for China to pay its share of the dues are rising.

We are moving towards a multipolar world order, which is different from anything in the past.

It consists of a highly diversified amalgamation of developed and emerging powers, which are deeply interdependent and therefore sensitive to each other's policies and development.

Under such conditions, not only China but also all other powers - both old and new - need to balance between answering persistent strong domestic demands and meeting increasing international expectations.

As the unipolar moment fades, the challenge for all major players is not to slide into another era of great power rivalry.

From the historical record we know that such colliding of national interests would severely weaken all players' chances for sustainable domestic development.

In spite of all the friction and misunderstanding, all sides need each other if they are to develop an alternative for raw international anarchy - the Hobbesian war of all against all.

There is a strong need to work together to enhance security, to guarantee that our policies benefit lasting stability and development, to invest in the safety of our energy supplies, to limit the impact of environmental hazards, to support effective governance, tackle non-traditional security threats, and enhance maritime security.

Whatever the new arrangement turns out to be, it will have to rest on a virtuoso-balancing act between competition and cooperation - a pragmatic and enlightened combination of national interests within complex networks of bilateral and multilateral partnerships.

The Chinese leader's present dilemma is that even though China's development may still be work in progress its sheer size makes it already matter a great deal to the rest of the world.

Beijing is facing an ever-harder quandary between China's identity as a developing country and its identity as an emerging power.

Time has come to articulate how China sees itself and its relationship with other major actors in the emerging world order.

The more so as the rest of the world is developing a keen interest in how the Harmonious World would look like.

(The author is director of the Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies at Vrije Universiteit Brussel. This is a speech he made at the 4th World Forum on China Studies in Shanghai on November 7. Shanghai Daily condensed his speech.)




 

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