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Day of reckoning looms when fossil fuels run out
By Wan Lixin |
March 5, 2011, Saturday
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Print Edition
Print Edition
A COLLEAGUE of mine, a car owner himself, yearns for the day when oil is depleted.
By that time, he believes, we will be living in a world free of noise and pollution.
Although there is still much controversy over the exact date that will happen, that date is nearing.
What is less understood is that as the entirety of modern civilization is built on fossil fuels, it will be thrown into convulsions.
Without machinery and fertilizers, the global population would be reduced to a more reasonable level, if it had not already been decimated by wars.
The majority of the population would return to the soil for subsistence, while the money changers and stock brokers would make barely enough to keep the wolf from the door.
According to "Confronting Collapse: The Crisis of Energy and Money in a Post Peak Oil World" by Michael C. Ruppert, the world has already reached the peak of easily obtainable oil. By 2030, the world may be "using 10 barrels for every new barrel discovered."
Policy makers are either ignoring or vehemently denying that, because that will debunk modern superstition about economic growth.
Ruppert points out that cheap oil fueled American Dream. The gospel of success and prosperity has since been preached to the rest of the world, with great success.
He believes the continued growth drove overconsumption that is destined to ruin any rational response to the energy crisis.
Rush to grab
Thus, instead of trying to wean itself from oil, the superpower is grabbing whatever oil it can lay hands on.
The invasion of Iraq was an important step in managing the crisis, as crafted by oil insiders such as Dick Cheney (former CEO of oil-services giant Hallibuton).
The recent turmoil in some oil-rich countries in north Africa naturally makes some countries very excited.
The steadily rising price of oil (now topping US$100 per barrel) has different implications for different countries.
Although the US used to be the undisputed (now challenged) No. 1 consumer and importer of oil, the US dollar's status as the default currency for global oil trade enables the US to obtain oil, goods and services easily from other countries, by simply operating the printing press.
Oil-exporting countries tend to accumulate a huge amount of petrodollars, which then flow back to the US financial market, artificially propping up the US economy and its global dominance.
But for those countries that have to earn their dollars through exports of resources and services, the increasing dependence on foreign oil is fatal.
Last year China's crude oil imports rose 17.5 percent above 2009 levels, reaching a record 4.79 million barrels per day.
The costs of import went up 51.4 percent.
While China is increasingly dependent on foreign oil to fuel its growth, it is also importing more food to feed its increasingly urbanized population.
Fatal dependence
According to China Customs statistics, grain imports reached 67 million tons in 2010, up 28 percent year-on-year, at a value of US$28 billion, up 35.6 percent over 2009.
As more and more Chinese peasants flock to cities to proffer themselves as cheap labor, the food issue is no longer perceived to be relevant.
The general feeling is that, what with technology and cheap imports, food can be obtained easily.
Since the 1950s, Big Agriculture has turned food into a product made with oil and natural gas, and the heavy use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides ruins the soil.
This process, together with the drastically increased global population, further deepens human dependence on fossil fuels.
For different reasons, many governments are enthusiastic about "clean" or alternative energies.
Ethanol, a US congressional giveaway to Big Agriculture, is committing the global corn supply (itself a heavy consumer of fossil fuels) to gas tanks, spurring runaway price hikes in grains.
Ceaseless growth
The book goes on to illustrate that the global economy is the root of the fossil-fuel problem because it demands ceaseless growth.
Ruppert believes "American culture and consumption has become Public Enemy Number One in the global growth paradigm."
"A man made requirement for infinite growth collides with a man-sustaining and unyielding finite planet and the physical laws that govern our universe," the book warns.
There are a few positive signs of change.
The author observes that in the US, "relocation" is occurring as some Americans abandon their past overconsumption and reach self-sufficiency, by growing food locally.
When Cuba lost its oil supply from the former Soviet Union, it reinvented itself with a local non fossil-fuel food system that is better and healthier.
All fuel-dependent countries will be facing a similar situation in the not-too-distant future.
By that time, he believes, we will be living in a world free of noise and pollution.
Although there is still much controversy over the exact date that will happen, that date is nearing.
What is less understood is that as the entirety of modern civilization is built on fossil fuels, it will be thrown into convulsions.
Without machinery and fertilizers, the global population would be reduced to a more reasonable level, if it had not already been decimated by wars.
The majority of the population would return to the soil for subsistence, while the money changers and stock brokers would make barely enough to keep the wolf from the door.
According to "Confronting Collapse: The Crisis of Energy and Money in a Post Peak Oil World" by Michael C. Ruppert, the world has already reached the peak of easily obtainable oil. By 2030, the world may be "using 10 barrels for every new barrel discovered."
Policy makers are either ignoring or vehemently denying that, because that will debunk modern superstition about economic growth.
Ruppert points out that cheap oil fueled American Dream. The gospel of success and prosperity has since been preached to the rest of the world, with great success.
He believes the continued growth drove overconsumption that is destined to ruin any rational response to the energy crisis.
Rush to grab
Thus, instead of trying to wean itself from oil, the superpower is grabbing whatever oil it can lay hands on.
The invasion of Iraq was an important step in managing the crisis, as crafted by oil insiders such as Dick Cheney (former CEO of oil-services giant Hallibuton).
The recent turmoil in some oil-rich countries in north Africa naturally makes some countries very excited.
The steadily rising price of oil (now topping US$100 per barrel) has different implications for different countries.
Although the US used to be the undisputed (now challenged) No. 1 consumer and importer of oil, the US dollar's status as the default currency for global oil trade enables the US to obtain oil, goods and services easily from other countries, by simply operating the printing press.
Oil-exporting countries tend to accumulate a huge amount of petrodollars, which then flow back to the US financial market, artificially propping up the US economy and its global dominance.
But for those countries that have to earn their dollars through exports of resources and services, the increasing dependence on foreign oil is fatal.
Last year China's crude oil imports rose 17.5 percent above 2009 levels, reaching a record 4.79 million barrels per day.
The costs of import went up 51.4 percent.
While China is increasingly dependent on foreign oil to fuel its growth, it is also importing more food to feed its increasingly urbanized population.
Fatal dependence
According to China Customs statistics, grain imports reached 67 million tons in 2010, up 28 percent year-on-year, at a value of US$28 billion, up 35.6 percent over 2009.
As more and more Chinese peasants flock to cities to proffer themselves as cheap labor, the food issue is no longer perceived to be relevant.
The general feeling is that, what with technology and cheap imports, food can be obtained easily.
Since the 1950s, Big Agriculture has turned food into a product made with oil and natural gas, and the heavy use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides ruins the soil.
This process, together with the drastically increased global population, further deepens human dependence on fossil fuels.
For different reasons, many governments are enthusiastic about "clean" or alternative energies.
Ethanol, a US congressional giveaway to Big Agriculture, is committing the global corn supply (itself a heavy consumer of fossil fuels) to gas tanks, spurring runaway price hikes in grains.
Ceaseless growth
The book goes on to illustrate that the global economy is the root of the fossil-fuel problem because it demands ceaseless growth.
Ruppert believes "American culture and consumption has become Public Enemy Number One in the global growth paradigm."
"A man made requirement for infinite growth collides with a man-sustaining and unyielding finite planet and the physical laws that govern our universe," the book warns.
There are a few positive signs of change.
The author observes that in the US, "relocation" is occurring as some Americans abandon their past overconsumption and reach self-sufficiency, by growing food locally.
When Cuba lost its oil supply from the former Soviet Union, it reinvented itself with a local non fossil-fuel food system that is better and healthier.
All fuel-dependent countries will be facing a similar situation in the not-too-distant future.
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