New book challenges football myths
Source: Agencies |
December 3, 2009, Thursday
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Print Edition
Print Edition
PREPARE to be disappointed, South Africans. One of the world's leading sports economists says you're not going to get rich hosting next year's World Cup.
There'll be no economic bonanza, according to a new book, and if experience matches the last World Cup in Germany, spending by visitors will be much less than the South African government shelled out preparing for the tournament.
"The next World Cup will not be an airplane dropping dollars on South Africa," authors Stefan Szymanski and Simon Kuper write in the book "Soccernomics."
The caveat comes just ahead of tomorrow's World Cup draw in South Africa, six months before football's showpiece tournament.
Using data analysis, history and psychology, the book punctures dozens of assumptions about what it takes to win, and who makes money in football - and in sports in general.
"The problem for South Africa is that they have to spend quite a lot to build stadiums," Szymanski said from London. "Germany could afford this, and it had stadiums anyway. But South Africa is a nation that can ill afford to fritter away a few billion on white elephants."
Following the 2002 World Cup, for instance, South Korea's K-League had difficulties filling the 10 new stadiums built for the event at a cost of US$2 billion.
The book's argument is that hosting a World Cup or Olympics is an inefficient way to revitalize a city, or enrich a nation - especially one like South Africa, where a third of the population lives on under US$2 a day. It can boost a nation's morale or image, but not much else.
"If you want to regenerate a poor neighborhood, regenerate it," Szymanski and Kuper write. "If you want an Olympic pool and a warm-up track, build them. You could build pools and tracks all across London, and it would still be cheaper than hosting the Olympics."
Szymanski, an economics professor at Cass Business School in London, and Kuper, a sports writer living in Paris, challenge plenty of accepted wisdoms. They even talk of opening a consulting firm for leagues and clubs, promising to improve performance and save money.
"We are not trying to take the magic out of soccer," Szymanski said in the interview. "But we want to understand the patterns, because they are not completely random."
Some of the sometimes surprising declarations are:
- The huge transfer fees spent in European club soccer bear little relation to where the club finishes in the league.
- By contrast, spending on player salaries explained very accurately where a club finishes.
- Researchers predicted how Chelsea players would take their penalties in the shootout at the 2008 Champions League final.
- Teams shouldn't buy players based on performance at big tournaments like the World Cup.
- Contrary to popular belief, the word "soccer" originated in England, not the United States.
- Norway is the country that loves football the most.
- Tournaments such as the World Cup stop thousands from killing themselves - no one can stop watching.
The book suggests the United States, Japan, and Australia are the rising powers in world football, while national teams in China, Iraq, Turkey and India could emerge as incomes rise and they pick up European expertise.
Szymanski and Kuper say many of the world's biggest clubs are not only poorly run from a financial viewpoint, but are small businesses dwarfed by the real industry titans. In 2008 the average club in the English Premier League had revenue of US$150 million, compared with US$100 million for a single British Tesco supermarket.
That is because clubs cannot possibly capture the amount of interest they generate: newspaper stories, reports on Internet sites, computer games, fodder for radio and TV talk shows, and discussions over dinner, at work or with a few beers.
"All this entertainment is made possible by soccer clubs, but they cannot appropriate a penny of the value we attach to it," the authors say. "Chelsea cannot charge us for talking or reading or thinking about Chelsea."
There'll be no economic bonanza, according to a new book, and if experience matches the last World Cup in Germany, spending by visitors will be much less than the South African government shelled out preparing for the tournament.
"The next World Cup will not be an airplane dropping dollars on South Africa," authors Stefan Szymanski and Simon Kuper write in the book "Soccernomics."
The caveat comes just ahead of tomorrow's World Cup draw in South Africa, six months before football's showpiece tournament.
Using data analysis, history and psychology, the book punctures dozens of assumptions about what it takes to win, and who makes money in football - and in sports in general.
"The problem for South Africa is that they have to spend quite a lot to build stadiums," Szymanski said from London. "Germany could afford this, and it had stadiums anyway. But South Africa is a nation that can ill afford to fritter away a few billion on white elephants."
Following the 2002 World Cup, for instance, South Korea's K-League had difficulties filling the 10 new stadiums built for the event at a cost of US$2 billion.
The book's argument is that hosting a World Cup or Olympics is an inefficient way to revitalize a city, or enrich a nation - especially one like South Africa, where a third of the population lives on under US$2 a day. It can boost a nation's morale or image, but not much else.
"If you want to regenerate a poor neighborhood, regenerate it," Szymanski and Kuper write. "If you want an Olympic pool and a warm-up track, build them. You could build pools and tracks all across London, and it would still be cheaper than hosting the Olympics."
Szymanski, an economics professor at Cass Business School in London, and Kuper, a sports writer living in Paris, challenge plenty of accepted wisdoms. They even talk of opening a consulting firm for leagues and clubs, promising to improve performance and save money.
"We are not trying to take the magic out of soccer," Szymanski said in the interview. "But we want to understand the patterns, because they are not completely random."
Some of the sometimes surprising declarations are:
- The huge transfer fees spent in European club soccer bear little relation to where the club finishes in the league.
- By contrast, spending on player salaries explained very accurately where a club finishes.
- Researchers predicted how Chelsea players would take their penalties in the shootout at the 2008 Champions League final.
- Teams shouldn't buy players based on performance at big tournaments like the World Cup.
- Contrary to popular belief, the word "soccer" originated in England, not the United States.
- Norway is the country that loves football the most.
- Tournaments such as the World Cup stop thousands from killing themselves - no one can stop watching.
The book suggests the United States, Japan, and Australia are the rising powers in world football, while national teams in China, Iraq, Turkey and India could emerge as incomes rise and they pick up European expertise.
Szymanski and Kuper say many of the world's biggest clubs are not only poorly run from a financial viewpoint, but are small businesses dwarfed by the real industry titans. In 2008 the average club in the English Premier League had revenue of US$150 million, compared with US$100 million for a single British Tesco supermarket.
That is because clubs cannot possibly capture the amount of interest they generate: newspaper stories, reports on Internet sites, computer games, fodder for radio and TV talk shows, and discussions over dinner, at work or with a few beers.
"All this entertainment is made possible by soccer clubs, but they cannot appropriate a penny of the value we attach to it," the authors say. "Chelsea cannot charge us for talking or reading or thinking about Chelsea."
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