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Medals table glory predicted for US, China and UK
By Ni Yinbin |
July 27, 2012, Friday
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Print Edition
Print Edition
FOR sports fans suffering from the "summertime fidget" - waiting for the new soccer season and for other major sports to resume - the London Olympics will provide a welcome distraction, and also an opportunity to learn more about other sports.
And with the Games almost upon us - the opening ceremony will be held in the early hours tomorrow, Beijing Time - experts have been coming up with predictions for the medals table.
According to a report by investment bank Goldman Sachs, the United States will take home more medals than any other country, followed by China and the United Kingdom. The US is expected to win a total of 108 medals, including 37 gold medals at the Games, according to forecasts in the Olympics and Economics 2012 Research Report.
China will rank second in the medal table with 33 gold medals - 18 less than its triumph in last Olympics in Beijing, according to the predictions.
And Great Britain will benefit from the home-field advantage and grab 30 gold medals, more than double the number it won in the 2008 Games, says the report.
The investment bank says its forecasts reflect two very clear patterns revealed in its analysis. "First, countries with superior growth environments and higher incomes are expected to win more medals, and, second, there is also a marked host effect that will likely bump up the number of medals attained by Great Britain."
The Goldman Sachs report says host nations can typically expect a 54 percent increase in medals won.
Other countries predicted to make it into the top 10 are, in descending order of gold medals, Russia, Australia, France, Germany, South Korea, Italy and Ukraine.
The forecast is based on how successfully each country has created a "world-class environment" for athletes to emerge from, population, past performance and the location of the Olympics.
The top 10 medal-winning countries are some of the world's most industrialized nations and there should be a correlation between national economies and Olympic performance, say the economists who worked on the report.
"So ultimately, it appears that gold does go where growth and the overall growth environment are best," said economists José Ursúa and Kamakshya Trivedi.
The medal predictions also recognizes the link between economic growth and performance can vary between sports. For example, cycling, judo, rowing and swimming are more likely to be affected by the economic health of a country.
However, some observers are somewhat skeptical of the investment bank's Olympic predictions, based on Goldman Sachs' past form.
They point out that two years ago, Goldman Sachs predicted that Brazil would win the World Cup; in fact, Brazil was knocked out in the quarterfinals.
And with the Games almost upon us - the opening ceremony will be held in the early hours tomorrow, Beijing Time - experts have been coming up with predictions for the medals table.
According to a report by investment bank Goldman Sachs, the United States will take home more medals than any other country, followed by China and the United Kingdom. The US is expected to win a total of 108 medals, including 37 gold medals at the Games, according to forecasts in the Olympics and Economics 2012 Research Report.
China will rank second in the medal table with 33 gold medals - 18 less than its triumph in last Olympics in Beijing, according to the predictions.
And Great Britain will benefit from the home-field advantage and grab 30 gold medals, more than double the number it won in the 2008 Games, says the report.
The investment bank says its forecasts reflect two very clear patterns revealed in its analysis. "First, countries with superior growth environments and higher incomes are expected to win more medals, and, second, there is also a marked host effect that will likely bump up the number of medals attained by Great Britain."
The Goldman Sachs report says host nations can typically expect a 54 percent increase in medals won.
Other countries predicted to make it into the top 10 are, in descending order of gold medals, Russia, Australia, France, Germany, South Korea, Italy and Ukraine.
The forecast is based on how successfully each country has created a "world-class environment" for athletes to emerge from, population, past performance and the location of the Olympics.
The top 10 medal-winning countries are some of the world's most industrialized nations and there should be a correlation between national economies and Olympic performance, say the economists who worked on the report.
"So ultimately, it appears that gold does go where growth and the overall growth environment are best," said economists José Ursúa and Kamakshya Trivedi.
The medal predictions also recognizes the link between economic growth and performance can vary between sports. For example, cycling, judo, rowing and swimming are more likely to be affected by the economic health of a country.
However, some observers are somewhat skeptical of the investment bank's Olympic predictions, based on Goldman Sachs' past form.
They point out that two years ago, Goldman Sachs predicted that Brazil would win the World Cup; in fact, Brazil was knocked out in the quarterfinals.
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