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Australia govt in poll trouble as election looms
Source: Agencies |
May 17, 2010, Monday
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AUSTRALIAN Prime Minister Kevin Rudd faces a growing risk of defeat at the next general election despite his efforts to win votes with a new mining tax, two new opinion polls showed today. Rudd is still favored to win re-election, but his Labor party has lost its clear lead over the conservative opposition, with both sides now on 50 percent support, according to separate polls published in The Australian and other News Ltd newspapers.
The next election is expected by political analysts to be held around October and to be fought partly over the mining tax, the cornerstone of Rudd's strategy to boost retirement incomes and wipe out the fiscal deficit by 2012-13.
Pollster David Briggs, whose Galaxy firm conducted one of the two surveys, said Rudd was still likely to win the next re-election because Labor could pick up votes from losing Green candidates under Australia's preferential voting system.
But, he told ABC radio, "the primary vote for Labor is still dangerously low."
The Australian's Newspoll survey showed Rudd's standing as preferred prime minister at 49 percent, down from 59 percent in March, confirming a trend that has sparked speculation that he might even be dumped as leader ahead of an election.
Both polls showed rapidly building support for Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard, who in recent weeks has rejected media speculation she could replace Rudd before the election.
"Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, it seems of late, couldn't sell water to a man dying of thirst in the desert," the Herald Sun said in an editorial, noting that he seemed to have lost his ability to sell government policies to the public. Support for Rudd's deputy in the more closely watched Newspoll jumped from 32 percent to 40 percent, while the Galaxy poll had her support at 34 percent against 45 percent for Rudd.
The Newspoll had support for Opposition Leader Tony Abbott up a point at 33 percent as Rudd's approval slipped beneath 50 percent for the first time since winning elections in 2007.
The negative polls are unlikely to force the government into any major policy reversals, but will put pressure on Rudd as he seeks to regain the political momentum.
The polls will lessen the chances of an early election fought over Senate opposition to emissions-trade laws as Rudd seeks to restore his standing with voters angry about climate change and bungled government environment programmes.
A rival Nielsen poll earlier this month also showed Rudd's Labor running level with the opposition on 50 percent.
The next election is expected by political analysts to be held around October and to be fought partly over the mining tax, the cornerstone of Rudd's strategy to boost retirement incomes and wipe out the fiscal deficit by 2012-13.
Pollster David Briggs, whose Galaxy firm conducted one of the two surveys, said Rudd was still likely to win the next re-election because Labor could pick up votes from losing Green candidates under Australia's preferential voting system.
But, he told ABC radio, "the primary vote for Labor is still dangerously low."
The Australian's Newspoll survey showed Rudd's standing as preferred prime minister at 49 percent, down from 59 percent in March, confirming a trend that has sparked speculation that he might even be dumped as leader ahead of an election.
Both polls showed rapidly building support for Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard, who in recent weeks has rejected media speculation she could replace Rudd before the election.
"Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, it seems of late, couldn't sell water to a man dying of thirst in the desert," the Herald Sun said in an editorial, noting that he seemed to have lost his ability to sell government policies to the public. Support for Rudd's deputy in the more closely watched Newspoll jumped from 32 percent to 40 percent, while the Galaxy poll had her support at 34 percent against 45 percent for Rudd.
The Newspoll had support for Opposition Leader Tony Abbott up a point at 33 percent as Rudd's approval slipped beneath 50 percent for the first time since winning elections in 2007.
The negative polls are unlikely to force the government into any major policy reversals, but will put pressure on Rudd as he seeks to regain the political momentum.
The polls will lessen the chances of an early election fought over Senate opposition to emissions-trade laws as Rudd seeks to restore his standing with voters angry about climate change and bungled government environment programmes.
A rival Nielsen poll earlier this month also showed Rudd's Labor running level with the opposition on 50 percent.
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