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Berlusconi fights for survival in confidence vote
Source: Agencies |
December 14, 2010, Tuesday
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ITALIAN Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi faces a close parliamentary confidence vote today that could drive him from office or cement his image as one of the great survivors of Italian politics.
The 74 year-old media tycoon has repeatedly defied the skeptics, shrugging off a string of gaffes and scandals to win three elections and transform Italy's political landscape since gaining power for the first time in 1994.
But after a year overshadowed by corruption and sex scandals and an acrimonious split with former ally Gianfranco Fini that cost him a secure parliamentary majority, a day of reckoning has arrived for Berlusconi.
His struggling government faces a no confidence motion in the lower house brought by the opposition and rebel centre-right deputies loyal to Fini and a confidence vote it has put forward itself in the Senate where it has a majority.
Lose either and he will have to step down, leaving President Giorgio Napolitano to appoint a new government or call elections more than two years before the scheduled date in 2013.
But an intensive campaign of lobbying and persuasion appears to have won over enough deputies to give Berlusconi a chance of survival, with many commentators estimating the government may just have the numbers to scrape through.
With 630 deputies in the lower house, Berlusconi in theory needs a 316 votes to be sure of victory but the actual total required may be smaller due to abstentions and absences.
Whether a bare majority will offer more than a brief respite is unlikely, and even if he does get through today's votes, attention will quickly turn to the next crisis unless he can forge a wider and more lasting alliance.
Speaking in parliament yesterday, Berlusconi offered a pact to doves on the rebel side, pledging to open his government to a broad coalition of moderates if he survives but offering no clear sign of what concessions he might offer.
Today's vote is being closely watched by financial markets on high alert over the euro zone debt crisis, and a prolonged period of uncertainty or a divisive election campaign could turn the spotlight on Italy's strained public finances.
Italy has one of the heaviest public debt burdens in the world, at almost 120 percent of gross domestic product but it has largely escaped the euro zone debt storm thanks to tight control of spending and a conservative banking system that avoided excess during the market boom.
Markets were reassured last week when the 2011 budget was passed in parliament but politicians on all sides are acutely aware of the danger of contagion and Berlusconi warned yesterday that it would be irresponsible to risk a crisis now.
A sharp jump in the premium investors demand to hold Italian debt rather than benchmark German bonds last month underlined the risk, although the interest rate spread has since come back from the record levels it hit on November 30.
The 74 year-old media tycoon has repeatedly defied the skeptics, shrugging off a string of gaffes and scandals to win three elections and transform Italy's political landscape since gaining power for the first time in 1994.
But after a year overshadowed by corruption and sex scandals and an acrimonious split with former ally Gianfranco Fini that cost him a secure parliamentary majority, a day of reckoning has arrived for Berlusconi.
His struggling government faces a no confidence motion in the lower house brought by the opposition and rebel centre-right deputies loyal to Fini and a confidence vote it has put forward itself in the Senate where it has a majority.
Lose either and he will have to step down, leaving President Giorgio Napolitano to appoint a new government or call elections more than two years before the scheduled date in 2013.
But an intensive campaign of lobbying and persuasion appears to have won over enough deputies to give Berlusconi a chance of survival, with many commentators estimating the government may just have the numbers to scrape through.
With 630 deputies in the lower house, Berlusconi in theory needs a 316 votes to be sure of victory but the actual total required may be smaller due to abstentions and absences.
Whether a bare majority will offer more than a brief respite is unlikely, and even if he does get through today's votes, attention will quickly turn to the next crisis unless he can forge a wider and more lasting alliance.
Speaking in parliament yesterday, Berlusconi offered a pact to doves on the rebel side, pledging to open his government to a broad coalition of moderates if he survives but offering no clear sign of what concessions he might offer.
Today's vote is being closely watched by financial markets on high alert over the euro zone debt crisis, and a prolonged period of uncertainty or a divisive election campaign could turn the spotlight on Italy's strained public finances.
Italy has one of the heaviest public debt burdens in the world, at almost 120 percent of gross domestic product but it has largely escaped the euro zone debt storm thanks to tight control of spending and a conservative banking system that avoided excess during the market boom.
Markets were reassured last week when the 2011 budget was passed in parliament but politicians on all sides are acutely aware of the danger of contagion and Berlusconi warned yesterday that it would be irresponsible to risk a crisis now.
A sharp jump in the premium investors demand to hold Italian debt rather than benchmark German bonds last month underlined the risk, although the interest rate spread has since come back from the record levels it hit on November 30.
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