Concerted same-sex marriage drive winning over New York
Source: Agencies |
April 24, 2011, Sunday
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Print Edition
Print Edition
LADY Gaga on stage on Long Island this weekend, actors Kevin Bacon, Julianne Moore and Kyra Sedgwick on video, and Governor Andrew Cuomo in Albany are headliners in New York's growing push to legalize gay marriage, a fight that may already be won thanks to shifting voter sentiment and a disciplined campaign.
New Yorkers opposed to gay marriage are being swamped by younger people who support it, while polls seem to show a new tack by advocates is working in the suburbs and upstate, the more conservative region where the issue will be won or lost.
Five US states - New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, Iowa and Massachusetts - and the District of Columbia have approved gay marriage laws. New York has always been a goal of advocates because of its size, high-profile, and unparalleled media presence. "A win in New York will provide significant momentum for the movement nationally and, quite frankly, internationally," said Brian Ellner of the Human Rights Campaign, working for same-sex marriage. "New York is very significant."
The organized effort under Cuomo is a turnaround from the surprising 2009 defeat in the state Senate, which fell eight votes short of passage in the 62-seat chamber after strong approval in the Assembly. Back then, advocacy groups operated more independently, sometimes alienating as many lawmakers and their constituents as they won over.
But those votes were just a prologue to today, said Bruce Gyory, a political science professor at the University at Albany who analyzes voter trends.
Despite failing in 2009, the debate demonstrated some of the Legislature's greatest displays of eloquence - personal stories of sons and daughters denied the joys and rights of marriage - and did what is rare in Albany: It changed votes.
A year ago, Gyory's analysis showed support for gay marriage was rising 1 to 2 percent a year nationally, as opposition declined by the same amount. But, he said, national polls now show support climbing at 2 to 4 percent a year, led by coastal states, including New York.
Even white Catholics - another major element of New York's suburban and upstate vote - reported rising acceptance in Pew and Gallup polls.
New Yorkers opposed to gay marriage are being swamped by younger people who support it, while polls seem to show a new tack by advocates is working in the suburbs and upstate, the more conservative region where the issue will be won or lost.
Five US states - New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, Iowa and Massachusetts - and the District of Columbia have approved gay marriage laws. New York has always been a goal of advocates because of its size, high-profile, and unparalleled media presence. "A win in New York will provide significant momentum for the movement nationally and, quite frankly, internationally," said Brian Ellner of the Human Rights Campaign, working for same-sex marriage. "New York is very significant."
The organized effort under Cuomo is a turnaround from the surprising 2009 defeat in the state Senate, which fell eight votes short of passage in the 62-seat chamber after strong approval in the Assembly. Back then, advocacy groups operated more independently, sometimes alienating as many lawmakers and their constituents as they won over.
But those votes were just a prologue to today, said Bruce Gyory, a political science professor at the University at Albany who analyzes voter trends.
Despite failing in 2009, the debate demonstrated some of the Legislature's greatest displays of eloquence - personal stories of sons and daughters denied the joys and rights of marriage - and did what is rare in Albany: It changed votes.
A year ago, Gyory's analysis showed support for gay marriage was rising 1 to 2 percent a year nationally, as opposition declined by the same amount. But, he said, national polls now show support climbing at 2 to 4 percent a year, led by coastal states, including New York.
Even white Catholics - another major element of New York's suburban and upstate vote - reported rising acceptance in Pew and Gallup polls.
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